Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Metz vs PAU, 30 October 2026 · 19:00 at Stade Saint-Symphorien (Metz), with Bastein Dechepy officiating. The odds point to Metz (48%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Wins: Metz win. Half lost (half the stake back): a draw. Loses: Metz lose.
Metz vs PAU: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Metz lie 7th, having collected 17 points after 12 matches (4W 5D 3L); PAU lie 5th, having collected 20 points (6W 2D 3L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Metz average 1.6 goals for and 1.4 against, compared with 1.3 for and 1.0 against for PAU.
- Form in the competition. Metz: 3W 5D 2L, goals 16–14; PAU: 5W 2D 3L, goals 13–10.
- Head to head. In 5 previous meetings, Metz have taken 1 win to PAU's 2 wins, plus 2 draws; the goal tally stands at 4–6.
What to expect
In our view Metz hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.8%). This one looks finely poised.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.73), which we give a 54% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 54%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 52%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 5; Metz 1 win, 2 draws, PAU 2 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.0 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Metz 16–14, PAU 13–10.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
- Unavailable: Metz 0, PAU 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 52%, top price 1.90). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Metz: no absences. PAU will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Metz vs PAU: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.08 | 3.79 | 3.90 |
| Market average | 1.93 | 3.49 | 3.65 |
| Lowest odds | 1.80 | 3.07 | 2.89 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.25 | 74.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 1.82 | 51.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 1.96 | 48.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.21 | 3.08 | 30.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.70 | 54.4% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 2.03 | 45.6% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 30/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 8.2%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Metz 1–1 PAU, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Metz 7th (17 points), PAU 5th (20 points).
- Form in the competition: Metz 3W 5D 2L (16:14), PAU 5W 2D 3L (13:10).
- H2H: 5 matches: Metz 1W 2D 2L, goals 4–6.
- Absences: Metz 0, PAU 0.
Who will win Metz vs PAU?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Metz vs PAU: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Metz vs PAU: injuries and missing players
Metz
- No reported absences
PAU
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Saint-Étienne | 11 | 8-1-2 | 23:11 | 25 |
| 2 |  Nancy | 12 | 8-1-3 | 17:9 | 25 |
| 3 |  Montpellier | 12 | 7-3-2 | 18:9 | 24 |
| 4 |  Reims | 12 | 5-6-1 | 24:15 | 21 |
| 5 | PAU | 11 | 6-2-3 | 16:11 | 20 |
| 6 |  Dijon | 12 | 5-3-4 | 21:19 | 18 |
| 7 | Metz | 12 | 4-5-3 | 20:19 | 17 |
| 8 |  RED Star FC 93 | 12 | 5-2-5 | 14:17 | 17 |
| 9 |  Annecy | 12 | 5-1-6 | 14:18 | 16 |
| 10 |  Dunkerque | 12 | 4-3-5 | 17:17 | 15 |
| 11 |  Guingamp | 12 | 4-2-6 | 16:18 | 14 |
| 12 |  Boulogne | 12 | 2-7-3 | 10:8 | 13 |
| 13 |  Rodez | 11 | 4-1-6 | 17:22 | 13 |
| 14 |  Sochaux | 12 | 2-5-5 | 8:15 | 11 |
| 15 |  Grenoble | 12 | 3-2-7 | 13:22 | 11 |
| 16 |  Nantes | 11 | 2-3-6 | 12:18 | 9 |
| 17 |  Laval | 11 | 2-3-6 | 14:21 | 9 |
| 18 |  Clermont Foot | 11 | 0-8-3 | 10:15 | 8 |
Recent matches
Metz
Home and away
Metz vs PAU: last matches of both teams
Metz
PAU
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
MetzWLDWLPAUWWWWWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Metz vs PAU?
Metz -0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.85); Both teams to score (1.73).
Who will win Metz vs PAU?
Our estimate gives Metz a 48% chance of winning, the draw 27% and PAU 25%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 30 October 2026 at 19:00, venue Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz. Referee: Bastein Dechepy.
Who will be missing?
Metz: no absences. PAU: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 52% (odds 1.90) and under 2.5 goals at 48% (odds 2.08).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 54% (odds 1.73).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.8%), then 1–0 (10.8%) and 2–1 (9.5%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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