Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 4–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Marseille vs Le Havre, 25 October 2026 · 16:15 at Orange Vélodrome (Marseille), with Clément Turpin officiating. The odds point to Marseille (65%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Wins: Marseille win by 2 or more. Half wins (half the stake back): Marseille win by 1. Loses: a draw, Marseille lose.
Marseille vs Le Havre: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Marseille lie 6th, having collected 15 points after 9 matches (5W 0D 4L); Le Havre lie 18th, having collected 2 points (0W 2D 7L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Marseille average 2.0 goals for and 1.4 against, compared with 0.7 for and 1.6 against for Le Havre.
- Form in the competition. Marseille: 3W 0D 4L, goals 14–10; Le Havre: 0W 2D 5L, goals 5–11.
- Head to head. In 8 previous meetings, Marseille have taken 8 wins to Le Havre's 0 wins, plus 0 draws; the goal tally stands at 27–9.
What to expect
In our view Marseille hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–1 (9.8%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.52), which we give a 64% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 58%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 64%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 8; Marseille 8 wins, 0 draws, Le Havre 0 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 4.5 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Marseille 14–10, Le Havre 5–11.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
- Unavailable: Marseille 1, Le Havre 6.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 58%, top price 1.62). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Marseille: D. Cornelius. Le Havre will be without: E. Jelert, F. Mambimbi, L. Mpasi-Nzau, T. Pembele, A. Toure, S. Zagadou. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Marseille vs Le Havre: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.53 | 5.08 | 6.50 |
| Market average | 1.48 | 4.88 | 6.08 |
| Lowest odds | 1.44 | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.13 | 82.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.52 | 1.49 | 63.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.69 | 2.59 | 36.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.34 | 2.24 | 42.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.59 | 58.4% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.24 | 41.6% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 25/10/26, 13:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.8%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Marseille 2–1 Le Havre, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Marseille 6th (15 points), Le Havre 18th (2 points).
- Form in the competition: Marseille 3W 0D 4L (14:10), Le Havre 0W 2D 5L (5:11).
- H2H: 8 matches: Marseille 8W 0D 0L, goals 27–9.
- Absences: Marseille 1, Le Havre 6.
Who will win Marseille vs Le Havre?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Marseille vs Le Havre: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Marseille vs Le Havre: injuries and missing players
Marseille
- D. Corneliuship injury · will miss the match
Le Havre
- E. Jelertthigh injury · will miss the match
- F. MambimbiAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- L. Mpasi-NzauAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- T. Pembelemuscle injury · will miss the match
- A. Toureknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Zagadouknee injury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 | Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Toulouse | 10 | 3-4-3 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 12 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | 3-1-6 | 18:22 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Marseille
Home and away
Marseille vs Le Havre: last matches of both teams
Marseille
Le Havre
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
MarseilleWWWWLLe HavreLLLLLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Marseille vs Le Havre?
Marseille -0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.64); Over 2.5 goals (1.52).
Who will win Marseille vs Le Havre?
Our estimate gives Marseille a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Le Havre 16%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 25 October 2026 at 16:15, venue Orange Vélodrome, Marseille. Referee: Clément Turpin.
Who will be missing?
Marseille: D. Cornelius. Le Havre: E. Jelert, F. Mambimbi, L. Mpasi-Nzau, T. Pembele, A. Toure, S. Zagadou. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 64% (odds 1.52) and under 2.5 goals at 36% (odds 2.69).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 58% (odds 1.62).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–1 (9.8%), then 2–0 (9.3%) and 1–1 (8.7%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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