Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 18 October 2026 · 16:15 at Stade du Moustoir (Lorient), Lorient take on Monaco, with M. Bollengier in charge. We make Monaco (46%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: Monaco win. Stake back: a draw. Loses: Monaco lose.
Lorient vs Monaco: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Lorient lie 12th, having collected 12 points after 9 matches (3W 3D 3L); Monaco lie 7th, having collected 15 points (4W 3D 2L).
What to expect
In our view Monaco hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (12.3%). This one looks finely poised.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.80), which we give a 53% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 53%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 49%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
- Unavailable: Lorient 0, Monaco 0.
Alternative tip: Under 2.5 goals
Another angle: Under 2.5 goals (probability 51%, top price 1.91). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Lorient: no absences. Monaco will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Lorient vs Monaco: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.82 | 3.50 | 2.15 |
| Market average | 3.64 | 3.43 | 2.08 |
| Lowest odds | 3.50 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 1.29 | 72.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 1.97 | 48.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.91 | 1.87 | 51.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.43 | 3.31 | 28.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.80 | 1.76 | 52.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.00 | 1.96 | 47.3% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 18/10/26, 13:01. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.7%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Lorient 1–1 Monaco, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Lorient 12th (12 points), Monaco 7th (15 points).
- Absences: Lorient 0, Monaco 0.
Who will win Lorient vs Monaco?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Lorient vs Monaco: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
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Correct score tips
Lorient vs Monaco: injuries and missing players
Lorient
- No reported absences
Monaco
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 | Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Toulouse | 10 | 3-4-3 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 12 | Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | 3-1-6 | 18:22 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Lorient
Home and away
Lorient vs Monaco: last matches of both teams
Lorient
Monaco
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Lorient vs Monaco?
Monaco +0 (Asian handicap) (1.55); Both teams to score (1.80).
Who will win Lorient vs Monaco?
Our estimate gives Lorient a 26% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Monaco 46%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 18 October 2026 at 16:15, venue Stade du Moustoir, Lorient. Referee: M. Bollengier.
Who will be missing?
Lorient: no absences. Monaco: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 49% (odds 2.05) and under 2.5 goals at 51% (odds 1.91).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 53% (odds 1.80).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (12.3%), then 0–1 (11.1%) and 1–2 (9.2%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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