Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 22 October 2026 · 17:45 at Stadion Miejski (Poznan), Lech Poznań take on Sunderland, with Balázs Berke in charge. We make Sunderland (51%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: Lech Poznań win, a draw. Half lost (half the stake back): Lech Poznań lose by 1. Loses: Lech Poznań lose by 2 or more.
Lech Poznań vs Sunderland: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Lech Poznań lie 35th, having collected 1 point after 4 matches (0W 1D 3L); Sunderland lie 11th, having collected 7 points (2W 1D 1L).
- Head to head. In 1 previous meetings, Lech Poznań have taken 0 wins to Sunderland's 0 wins, plus 1 draw; the goal tally stands at 1–1.
What to expect
In our view Sunderland hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.1%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), which we give a 65% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 57%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 55%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 1; Lech Poznań 0 wins, 1 draw, Sunderland 0 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.0 goals a game on average.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
- Unavailable: Lech Poznań 0, Sunderland 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 57%, top price 1.70). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Lech Poznań: no absences. Sunderland will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Lech Poznań vs Sunderland: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 4.29 | 3.90 | 1.90 |
| Market average | 4.05 | 3.76 | 1.84 |
| Lowest odds | 3.80 | 3.45 | 1.60 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.21 | 77.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.82 | 1.72 | 55.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 2.13 | 44.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.83 | 2.72 | 34.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.63 | 57.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.17 | 42.8% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 22/10/26, 16:29. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.0%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Lech Poznań 1–1 Sunderland, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Lech Poznań 35th (1 point), Sunderland 11th (7 points).
- H2H: 1 match: Lech Poznań 0W 1D 0L, goals 1–1.
- Absences: Lech Poznań 0, Sunderland 0.
Who will win Lech Poznań vs Sunderland?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Lech Poznań vs Sunderland: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Lech Poznań vs Sunderland: injuries and missing players
Lech Poznań
- No reported absences
Sunderland
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | 4-0-0 | 13:3 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | 4-0-0 | 11:2 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvárosi TC | 4 | 4-0-0 | 11:3 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union Saint-Gilloise | 4 | 3-1-0 | 10:2 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | 3-1-0 | 11:4 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3-1-0 | 4:1 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 3-0-1 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | 2-1-1 | 11:8 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 2-1-1 | 5:4 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | 2-1-1 | 4:3 | 7 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 4 | 2-1-1 | 4:4 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 2-1-1 | 8:9 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | 2-1-1 | 6:7 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 2-0-2 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | 2-0-2 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | 2-0-2 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | 1-3-0 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2-0-2 | 6:7 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | 2-0-2 | 7:9 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | 1-2-1 | 9:4 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | 1-2-1 | 9:6 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 1-1-2 | 6:6 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1-1-2 | 6:6 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | 1-1-2 | 5:9 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:8 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzeň | 4 | 1-0-3 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | 1-0-3 | 2:6 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | 1-0-3 | 6:11 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | 0-1-3 | 1:8 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrøm | 4 | 0-1-3 | 2:10 | 1 |
| 35 | Lech Poznań | 4 | 0-1-3 | 2:12 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 0-0-4 | 4:14 | 0 |
Recent matches
Lech Poznań
Home and away
Lech Poznań vs Sunderland: last matches of both teams
Lech Poznań
Sunderland
Head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Lech Poznań vs Sunderland?
Lech Poznań +0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.93); Under 3.5 goals (1.47).
Who will win Lech Poznań vs Sunderland?
Our estimate gives Lech Poznań a 23% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sunderland 51%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 22 October 2026 at 17:45, venue Stadion Miejski, Poznan. Referee: Balázs Berke.
Who will be missing?
Lech Poznań: no absences. Sunderland: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 55% (odds 1.82) and under 2.5 goals at 45% (odds 2.20).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 57% (odds 1.70).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.1%), then 0–1 (10.1%) and 1–2 (9.7%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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