Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven, 20 October 2026 · 20:00 at Estádio do Dragão (Porto), with Daniel Siebert, Germany officiating. The odds point to FC Porto (63%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Wins: FC Porto win by 2 or more. Stake back: FC Porto win by 1. Loses: a draw, FC Porto lose.
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. FC Porto lie 26th, having collected 3 points after 4 matches (1W 0D 3L); PSV Eindhoven lie 24th, having collected 4 points (1W 1D 2L).
- Head to head. In 1 previous meetings, FC Porto have taken 0 wins to PSV Eindhoven's 1 win, plus 0 draws; the goal tally stands at 0–1.
What to expect
In our view FC Porto hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–1 (9.9%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.60), which we give a 61% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 57%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 61%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 1; FC Porto 0 wins, 0 draws, PSV Eindhoven 1 win.
- Head to head meetings have produced 1.0 goals a game on average.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
- Unavailable: FC Porto 0, PSV Eindhoven 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Another angle: Under 3.5 goals (probability 60%, top price 1.65). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for FC Porto: no absences. PSV Eindhoven will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.57 | 4.78 | 6.13 |
| Market average | 1.53 | 4.57 | 5.77 |
| Lowest odds | 1.50 | 4.27 | 5.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.15 | 81.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 1.53 | 61.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.60 | 2.44 | 38.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.49 | 2.37 | 40.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.63 | 57.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.17 | 43.0% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 20/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 4.9%.
The key facts
- Likely result: FC Porto 2–1 PSV Eindhoven, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: FC Porto 26th (3 points), PSV Eindhoven 24th (4 points).
- H2H: 1 match: FC Porto 0W 0D 1L, goals 0–1.
- Absences: FC Porto 0, PSV Eindhoven 0.
Who will win FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: injuries and missing players
FC Porto
- No reported absences
PSV Eindhoven
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 4 | 4-0-0 | 20:5 | 12 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 4 | 4-0-0 | 13:7 | 12 |
| 3 |  Arsenal | 4 | 3-1-0 | 8:3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Como | 4 | 3-0-1 | 19:6 | 9 |
| 5 |  Barcelona | 4 | 3-0-1 | 14:6 | 9 |
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 4 | 3-0-1 | 12:6 | 9 |
| 7 |  Manchester City | 4 | 3-0-1 | 12:7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Liverpool | 4 | 3-0-1 | 14:10 | 9 |
| 9 |  Club Brugge KV | 4 | 3-0-1 | 11:7 | 9 |
| 10 |  Sporting CP | 4 | 3-0-1 | 8:4 | 9 |
| 11 |  Real Betis | 4 | 3-0-1 | 8:6 | 9 |
| 12 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 3-0-1 | 7:5 | 9 |
| 13 |  Bayern München | 4 | 2-2-0 | 12:5 | 8 |
| 14 |  VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 2-1-1 | 7:4 | 7 |
| 15 |  Inter | 4 | 2-0-2 | 8:6 | 6 |
| 16 |  Lask Linz | 4 | 2-0-2 | 10:9 | 6 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 4 | 2-0-2 | 8:8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Galatasaray | 4 | 2-0-2 | 8:9 | 6 |
| 19 |  Fenerbahçe | 4 | 1-2-1 | 6:11 | 5 |
| 20 |  AS Roma | 4 | 1-1-2 | 10:8 | 4 |
| 21 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 1-1-2 | 4:4 | 4 |
| 22 |  Viking | 4 | 1-1-2 | 9:10 | 4 |
| 23 |  Atlético Madrid | 4 | 1-1-2 | 4:5 | 4 |
| 24 | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 25 |  Bodø/Glimt | 4 | 1-1-2 | 4:9 | 4 |
| 26 | FC Porto | 4 | 1-0-3 | 6:7 | 3 |
| 27 |  Napoli | 4 | 1-0-3 | 6:11 | 3 |
| 28 |  Villarreal | 4 | 1-0-3 | 8:14 | 3 |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 4 | 1-0-3 | 5:11 | 3 |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 4 | 1-0-3 | 5:11 | 3 |
| 31 |  Sabah FA | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:10 | 3 |
| 32 |  Feyenoord | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:11 | 3 |
| 33 |  Lens | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:16 | 3 |
| 34 |  Slavia Praha | 4 | 0-1-3 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lille | 4 | 0-1-3 | 4:10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 4 | 0-0-4 | 1:17 | 0 |
Recent matches
FC Porto
Home and away
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: last matches of both teams
FC Porto
PSV Eindhoven
Head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
FC Porto -1 (Asian handicap) (1.89); Over 2.5 goals (1.60).
Who will win FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our estimate gives FC Porto a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and PSV Eindhoven 17%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 20 October 2026 at 20:00, venue Estádio do Dragão, Porto. Referee: Daniel Siebert, Germany.
Who will be missing?
FC Porto: no absences. PSV Eindhoven: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 61% (odds 1.60) and under 2.5 goals at 39% (odds 2.60).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 57% (odds 1.67).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–1 (9.9%), then 2–0 (9.4%) and 1–1 (9.2%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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