Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 25 October 2026 · 19:00 at AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar） (Alkmaar), AZ Alkmaar take on Twente, with Alex Bos in charge. We rate the game as a toss-up. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. AZ Alkmaar lie 5th, having collected 20 points after 11 matches (6W 2D 3L); Twente lie 4th, having collected 23 points (7W 2D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, AZ Alkmaar average 2.2 goals for and 1.1 against, compared with 1.9 for and 1.1 against for Twente.
- Form in the competition. AZ Alkmaar: 6W 2D 1L, goals 20–10; Twente: 5W 2D 2L, goals 17–10.
- Head to head. In 35 previous meetings, AZ Alkmaar have taken 18 wins to Twente's 12 wins, plus 5 draws; the goal tally stands at 60–48.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 2–2 scoreline, around 4 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (10.0%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.50), which we give a 64% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 66%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 64%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 35; AZ Alkmaar 18 wins, 5 draws, Twente 12 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.1 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: AZ Alkmaar 20–10, Twente 17–10.
- Our projection is around 4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
- Unavailable: AZ Alkmaar 4, Twente 4.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Another angle: Under 3.5 goals (probability 57%, top price 1.70). A projection of around 4 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for AZ Alkmaar: J. Hornkamp, S. Resink, K. Smit, J. Clasie. Twente will be without: M. Bruns, S. Lemkin, F. Thorvaldsen, L. Unnerstall. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.30 | 3.94 | 3.05 |
| Market average | 2.22 | 3.78 | 2.88 |
| Lowest odds | 2.14 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 1.12 | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 1.46 | 64.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 | 2.62 | 35.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.25 | 2.17 | 43.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.44 | 1.41 | 65.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.88 | 2.71 | 34.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 25/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.4%.
The key facts
- Likely result: AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Twente, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: AZ Alkmaar 5th (20 points), Twente 4th (23 points).
- Form in the competition: AZ Alkmaar 6W 2D 1L (20:10), Twente 5W 2D 2L (17:10).
- H2H: 35 matches: AZ Alkmaar 18W 5D 12L, goals 60–48.
- Absences: AZ Alkmaar 4, Twente 4.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente: injuries and missing players
AZ Alkmaar
- J. Hornkampinjury · will miss the match
- S. Resinkknee injury · will miss the match
- K. Smitinjury · will miss the match
- J. Clasieknock · doubtful
Twente
- M. Brunsnot in the squad · will miss the match
- S. Lemkinmuscle injury · will miss the match
- F. Thorvaldsennot in the squad · will miss the match
- L. Unnerstallnot in the squad · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 | Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3-3-6 | 13:24 | 12 |
| 14 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 12 | 0-3-9 | 11:40 | 3 |
Recent matches
AZ Alkmaar
Home and away
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente: last matches of both teams
AZ Alkmaar
Twente
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
AZ AlkmaarLLDLWTwenteWWLDWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
Draw or Twente (X2) (1.72); Over 2.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
Our estimate gives AZ Alkmaar a 42% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Twente 33%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 25 October 2026 at 19:00, venue AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）, Alkmaar. Referee: Alex Bos.
Who will be missing?
AZ Alkmaar: J. Hornkamp, S. Resink, K. Smit, J. Clasie. Twente: M. Bruns, S. Lemkin, F. Thorvaldsen, L. Unnerstall. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 64% (odds 1.50) and under 2.5 goals at 36% (odds 2.75).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 66% (odds 1.44).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (10.0%), then 2–1 (8.8%) and 1–2 (7.8%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.