Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–4. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 22 October 2026 · 17:45 at Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium (Yerevan), Ararat-Armenia take on AZ Alkmaar, with Patrik Kolarič in charge. We make AZ Alkmaar (67%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: AZ Alkmaar win by 2 or more. Half lost (half the stake back): AZ Alkmaar win by 1. Loses: a draw, AZ Alkmaar lose.
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Ararat-Armenia lie 36th, having collected 0 points after 4 matches (0W 0D 4L); AZ Alkmaar lie 14th, having collected 6 points (2W 0D 2L).
- Head to head. In 1 previous meetings, Ararat-Armenia have taken 0 wins to AZ Alkmaar's 1 win, plus 0 draws; the goal tally stands at 0–4.
What to expect
In our view AZ Alkmaar hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 0–2 (10.8%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.60), which we give a 61% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 53%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 61%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 1; Ararat-Armenia 0 wins, 0 draws, AZ Alkmaar 1 win.
- Head to head meetings have produced 4.0 goals a game on average.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
- Unavailable: Ararat-Armenia 0, AZ Alkmaar 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Another angle: Under 3.5 goals (probability 60%, top price 1.67). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Ararat-Armenia: no absences. AZ Alkmaar will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 7.90 | 5.12 | 1.44 |
| Market average | 7.28 | 4.85 | 1.40 |
| Lowest odds | 5.03 | 4.00 | 1.36 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.15 | 81.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 1.54 | 61.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.62 | 2.42 | 39.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.49 | 2.36 | 40.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.78 | 1.75 | 53.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 1.99 | 46.9% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 22/10/26, 16:29. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.0%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Ararat-Armenia 0–2 AZ Alkmaar, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Ararat-Armenia 36th (0 points), AZ Alkmaar 14th (6 points).
- H2H: 1 match: Ararat-Armenia 0W 0D 1L, goals 0–4.
- Absences: Ararat-Armenia 0, AZ Alkmaar 0.
Who will win Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar: injuries and missing players
Ararat-Armenia
- No reported absences
AZ Alkmaar
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | 4-0-0 | 13:3 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | 4-0-0 | 11:2 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvárosi TC | 4 | 4-0-0 | 11:3 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union Saint-Gilloise | 4 | 3-1-0 | 10:2 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | 3-1-0 | 11:4 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3-1-0 | 4:1 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 3-0-1 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | 2-1-1 | 11:8 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 2-1-1 | 5:4 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | 2-1-1 | 4:3 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 2-1-1 | 4:4 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 2-1-1 | 8:9 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | 2-1-1 | 6:7 | 7 |
| 14 | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 2-0-2 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | 2-0-2 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | 2-0-2 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | 1-3-0 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2-0-2 | 6:7 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | 2-0-2 | 7:9 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | 1-2-1 | 9:4 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | 1-2-1 | 9:6 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 1-1-2 | 6:6 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1-1-2 | 6:6 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | 1-1-2 | 5:9 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:8 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzeň | 4 | 1-0-3 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | 1-0-3 | 2:6 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | 1-0-3 | 6:11 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | 0-1-3 | 1:8 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrøm | 4 | 0-1-3 | 2:10 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznań | 4 | 0-1-3 | 2:12 | 1 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 0-0-4 | 4:14 | 0 |
Recent matches
Ararat-Armenia
Home and away
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar: last matches of both teams
Ararat-Armenia
AZ Alkmaar
Head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar -1.25 (Asian handicap) (2.12); Over 2.5 goals (1.60).
Who will win Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our estimate gives Ararat-Armenia a 13% chance of winning, the draw 20% and AZ Alkmaar 67%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 22 October 2026 at 17:45, venue Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan. Referee: Patrik Kolarič.
Who will be missing?
Ararat-Armenia: no absences. AZ Alkmaar: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 61% (odds 1.60) and under 2.5 goals at 39% (odds 2.62).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 53% (odds 1.78).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 0–2 (10.8%), then 1–2 (9.8%) and 0–1 (9.6%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.