Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Shelbourne welcome Waterford on 30 October 2026 · 19:45 at Tolka Park (Dublin). Shelbourne (45%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: Shelbourne win. Half lost (half the stake back): a draw. Loses: Shelbourne lose.
Shelbourne vs Waterford: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Shelbourne lie 4th, having collected 49 points after 36 matches (12W 13D 11L); Waterford lie 7th, having collected 43 points (10W 13D 13L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Shelbourne average 1.4 goals for and 1.3 against, compared with 1.5 for and 1.7 against for Waterford.
- Form in the competition. Shelbourne: 12W 13D 10L, goals 50–47; Waterford: 9W 13D 13L, goals 51–59.
- Head to head. In 16 previous meetings, Shelbourne have taken 9 wins to Waterford's 4 wins, plus 3 draws; the goal tally stands at 22–14.
What to expect
In our view Shelbourne hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (10.1%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.45), which we give a 65% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 65%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 63%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 16; Shelbourne 9 wins, 3 draws, Waterford 4 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.3 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Shelbourne 50–47, Waterford 51–59.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
- Unavailable: Shelbourne 0, Waterford 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 63%, top price 1.52). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Shelbourne: no absences. Waterford will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Shelbourne vs Waterford: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.14 | 3.93 | 3.18 |
| Market average | 2.05 | 3.74 | 3.06 |
| Lowest odds | 1.99 | 3.28 | 2.90 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 1.13 | 82.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.52 | 1.48 | 62.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | 2.50 | 37.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.28 | 2.22 | 42.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.45 | 1.43 | 64.6% |
| BTTS – no | 2.70 | 2.61 | 35.4% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 30/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 8.3%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Shelbourne 1–1 Waterford, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Shelbourne 4th (49 points), Waterford 7th (43 points).
- Form in the competition: Shelbourne 12W 13D 10L (50:47), Waterford 9W 13D 13L (51:59).
- H2H: 16 matches: Shelbourne 9W 3D 4L, goals 22–14.
- Absences: Shelbourne 0, Waterford 0.
Who will win Shelbourne vs Waterford?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Shelbourne vs Waterford: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Shelbourne vs Waterford: injuries and missing players
Shelbourne
- No reported absences
Waterford
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Shamrock Rovers | 36 | 20-8-8 | 59:38 | 68 |
| 2 |  Bohemians | 36 | 19-8-9 | 63:44 | 65 |
| 3 |  St Patrick's Athletic | 36 | 17-9-10 | 55:31 | 60 |
| 4 | Shelbourne | 36 | 12-13-11 | 52:50 | 49 |
| 5 |  Derry City | 36 | 11-15-10 | 50:47 | 48 |
| 6 |  Dundalk | 36 | 11-12-13 | 55:59 | 45 |
| 7 | Waterford | 36 | 10-13-13 | 54:61 | 43 |
| 8 |  Galway United | 36 | 10-12-14 | 46:53 | 42 |
| 9 |  Drogheda United | 36 | 10-10-16 | 44:57 | 40 |
| 10 |  Sligo Rovers | 36 | 5-10-21 | 28:66 | 25 |
Recent matches
Shelbourne
Home and away
Shelbourne vs Waterford: last matches of both teams
Shelbourne
Waterford
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
ShelbourneLWWWDWaterfordWWWLLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Shelbourne -0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.88); Both teams to score (1.45).
Who will win Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Our estimate gives Shelbourne a 45% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Waterford 30%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 30 October 2026 at 19:45, venue Tolka Park, Dublin.
Who will be missing?
Shelbourne: no absences. Waterford: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 63% (odds 1.52) and under 2.5 goals at 37% (odds 2.63).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 65% (odds 1.45).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (10.1%), then 2–1 (9.1%) and 1–2 (7.3%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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