Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 5–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 25 October 2026 · 18:15 at Aker Stadion (Molde), Molde take on Fredrikstad, with Ola Hobber Nilsen in charge. We make Molde (68%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: Molde win. Loses: a draw, Molde lose.
Molde vs Fredrikstad: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Molde lie 3rd, having collected 43 points after 25 matches (13W 4D 8L); Fredrikstad lie 11th, having collected 29 points (8W 5D 12L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Molde average 2.3 goals for and 1.5 against, compared with 1.2 for and 1.6 against for Fredrikstad.
- Form in the competition. Molde: 12W 4D 7L, goals 52–35; Fredrikstad: 8W 5D 10L, goals 28–36.
- Head to head. In 6 previous meetings, Molde have taken 2 wins to Fredrikstad's 2 wins, plus 2 draws; the goal tally stands at 14–8.
What to expect
In our view Molde hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–1 (9.5%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.60), which we give a 59% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 59%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 68%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 6; Molde 2 wins, 2 draws, Fredrikstad 2 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.7 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Molde 52–35, Fredrikstad 28–36.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 68%.
- Unavailable: Molde 6, Fredrikstad 3.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Another angle: Under 3.5 goals (probability 53%, top price 1.83). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Molde: S. Diop, S. Hansen, E. Hestad, V. Hoff, M. Kikkenborg, H. Stenevik. Fredrikstad will be without: D. Eid, S. Kvile, J. Nysveen. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Molde vs Fredrikstad: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.40 | 5.53 | 7.50 |
| Market average | 1.37 | 5.07 | 6.86 |
| Lowest odds | 1.33 | 4.75 | 6.38 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.10 | 84.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 1.38 | 67.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.03 | 2.88 | 32.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.06 | 1.99 | 47.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.60 | 1.57 | 58.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.25 | 41.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 25/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 7.5%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Molde 2–1 Fredrikstad, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Molde 3rd (43 points), Fredrikstad 11th (29 points).
- Form in the competition: Molde 12W 4D 7L (52:35), Fredrikstad 8W 5D 10L (28:36).
- H2H: 6 matches: Molde 2W 2D 2L, goals 14–8.
- Absences: Molde 6, Fredrikstad 3.
Who will win Molde vs Fredrikstad?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Molde vs Fredrikstad: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Molde vs Fredrikstad: injuries and missing players
Molde
- S. Diopnot in the squad · will miss the match
- S. Hanseninjury · will miss the match
- E. Hestadabsence · will miss the match
- V. Hoffknee injury · will miss the match
- M. KikkenborgAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- H. Stenevikinjury · will miss the match
Fredrikstad
- D. Eidabsence · will miss the match
- S. Kvileknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Nysveeninjury · doubtful
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 25 | 19-2-4 | 64:26 | 59 |
| 2 |  Bodø/Glimt | 25 | 19-2-4 | 61:23 | 59 |
| 3 | Molde | 25 | 13-4-8 | 59:39 | 43 |
| 4 |  Rosenborg | 25 | 13-4-8 | 49:31 | 43 |
| 5 |  Lillestrøm | 25 | 13-3-9 | 36:33 | 42 |
| 6 |  Tromsø | 25 | 11-7-7 | 43:38 | 40 |
| 7 |  Brann | 25 | 10-2-13 | 45:42 | 32 |
| 8 |  Vålerenga | 25 | 9-5-11 | 43:46 | 32 |
| 9 |  Sarpsborg 08 FF | 25 | 8-7-10 | 32:39 | 31 |
| 10 |  KFUM Oslo | 25 | 8-7-10 | 32:41 | 31 |
| 11 | Fredrikstad | 25 | 8-5-12 | 29:44 | 29 |
| 12 |  Sandefjord | 25 | 7-6-12 | 26:34 | 27 |
| 13 |  Ham-Kam | 25 | 7-6-12 | 35:53 | 27 |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 25 | 5-9-11 | 43:57 | 24 |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 25 | 6-5-14 | 29:51 | 23 |
| 16 |  Start | 25 | 5-4-16 | 26:55 | 19 |
Recent matches
Molde
Home and away
Molde vs Fredrikstad: last matches of both teams
Molde
Fredrikstad
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
MoldeLWWDLFredrikstadLLLDDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Molde vs Fredrikstad?
Molde -0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.50); Both teams to score (1.60).
Who will win Molde vs Fredrikstad?
Our estimate gives Molde a 68% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Fredrikstad 14%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 25 October 2026 at 18:15, venue Aker Stadion, Molde. Referee: Ola Hobber Nilsen.
Who will be missing?
Molde: S. Diop, S. Hansen, E. Hestad, V. Hoff, M. Kikkenborg, H. Stenevik. Fredrikstad: D. Eid, S. Kvile, J. Nysveen. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 68% (odds 1.40) and under 2.5 goals at 32% (odds 3.03).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 59% (odds 1.60).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–1 (9.5%), then 2–0 (9.1%) and 3–1 (7.8%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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