Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Lillestrøm vs Aalesund (Eliteserien, 8 November 2026, 16:00): Lillestrøm -0.5 (Asian handicap) at odds of 1.83. Second tip: Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.99. The bookmakers' odds give Lillestrøm 52%, the draw 22% and Aalesund 26%. The most likely score is 2–1.
Wins: Lillestrøm win. Loses: a draw, Lillestrøm lose.
Lillestrøm vs Aalesund preview and prediction
Åråsen Stadion in Kjeller is the venue on 8 November 2026, where Lillestrøm welcome Aalesund. Kick-off is 16:00 in Matchweek 26 of Eliteserien. Bookmakers rate the home side as the favourite at 52%, with a draw at 22% and Aalesund at 26%. Expected goals sit at 2 for Lillestrøm and 1 for Aalesund, which points to a total of roughly three goals across the match. In our view, the outcome is the more straightforward element of this fixture to read.
The key facts
- Likely result: Lillestrøm 2–1 Aalesund, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Lillestrøm 5th (42 points), Aalesund 14th (24 points).
- Form in the competition: Lillestrøm 13W 3D 9L (36:33), Aalesund 5W 9D 11L (43:57).
- H2H: 12 matches: Lillestrøm 6W 3D 3L, goals 26–14.
- Absences: Lillestrøm 0, Aalesund 0.
Lillestrøm: fifth with a solid home base
In this competition Lillestrøm have 42 points from 25 matches, which is fifth place, with 13 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats. Their goals read 36 scored and 33 conceded. At Åråsen they have taken 6 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats, with 22 goals scored against 19 conceded.
Across their last five matches, in every competition, the form looks nothing like the league table suggests. They have taken three wins and a single draw, but they also suffered one loss, a heavy 0-6 beating at home by Real Sociedad. The victories arrived at Sandefjord, against Brann at home and at Start, while the point was earned at Sparta Praha. Over those five games they have netted 7 and let in 9, so scoring chances are not what holds them back. The real worry is what happens once an opponent gets on top and keeps the upper hand.
Who will win Lillestrøm vs Aalesund?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Aalesund: plenty of goals, too many at the back
On the road, Aalesund have managed 3 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats, scoring 16 and conceding 23. Aalesund sit 14th with 24 points from 25 games in this competition, built on 5 wins, 9 draws and 11 defeats. They have scored 43 and conceded 57.
Across their last five outings in all competitions, they have picked up two victories and three losses, among them a 3-4 home reverse against Sandefjord and a 2-4 home beating at the hands of Sarpsborg 08 FF. Over those five, they have netted 12 and let in 12. Every one of those matches has seen both sides find the net, and each has gone beyond 2.5 goals. That points toward goals at both ends, which is also why we would be cautious about backing the visitors to keep a clean sheet.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 25 | 19-2-4 | 64:26 | 59 |
| 2 |  Bodø/Glimt | 25 | 19-2-4 | 61:23 | 59 |
| 3 |  Molde | 25 | 13-4-8 | 59:39 | 43 |
| 4 |  Rosenborg | 25 | 13-4-8 | 49:31 | 43 |
| 5 |  Lillestrøm | 25 | 13-3-9 | 36:33 | 42 |
| 6 |  Tromsø | 25 | 11-7-7 | 43:38 | 40 |
| 7 |  Brann | 25 | 10-2-13 | 45:42 | 32 |
| 8 |  Vålerenga | 25 | 9-5-11 | 43:46 | 32 |
| 9 |  Sarpsborg 08 FF | 25 | 8-7-10 | 32:39 | 31 |
| 10 |  KFUM Oslo | 25 | 8-7-10 | 32:41 | 31 |
| 11 |  Fredrikstad | 25 | 8-5-12 | 29:44 | 29 |
| 12 |  Sandefjord | 25 | 7-6-12 | 26:34 | 27 |
| 13 |  Ham-Kam | 25 | 7-6-12 | 35:53 | 27 |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 25 | 5-9-11 | 43:57 | 24 |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 25 | 6-5-14 | 29:51 | 23 |
| 16 |  Start | 25 | 5-4-16 | 26:55 | 19 |
Recent matches
Lillestrøm
Home and away
Lillestrøm vs Aalesund: last matches of both teams
Lillestrøm
Aalesund
Meetings, absences and what they tell us
Historically, Lillestrøm have the better head-to-head record in this rivalry. Across their last 12 encounters, Lillestrøm have collected six victories, three draws and three defeats, and found the net 26 times against Aalesund's 14. Their latest clash ended Aalesund 1-3 Lillestrøm on 15 March 2026, while the 5-1 victory at Åråsen in August 2025 illustrates how lopsided these fixtures can get.
Neither club has reported any absentees, which leaves the pricing untouched by injury or suspension news. We accept that as it stands and back both sides on their current form.
Head to head
All matchesLillestrøm vs Aalesund: injuries and missing players
Lillestrøm
- No reported absences
Aalesund
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Our Lillestrøm vs Aalesund betting tip: Lillestrøm -0.5
Our top pick is Lillestrøm -0.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.81, with a 53% chance. At -0.5, Lillestrøm need to win by at least 1 goal, so both a draw and a defeat would lose the bet. Three factors support this: they have taken three wins from their last five while losing just one, they are fifth on 42 points compared with Aalesund's 24, and they have collected 6 home wins in this competition. Their record over the last 12 meetings also favours them, with six wins against three for Aalesund, which makes the home side the stronger choice to win by a goal.
The scoreline is where this bet lives or dies. It cashes on 2-1, 3-1 and 2-0, but falls apart on 1-1, 2-2 and 1-2. We won't dress that up as a comfortable spot. Our case rests on the side whose underlying numbers look stronger, and it requires Lillestrøm to win the match by at least one goal.
Our second tip: Under 3.5 goals
Our second selection is Under 3.5 goals at 1.92, with a 50% chance. Just two of Lillestrøm's last five matches finished above 2.5 goals, and in two others they kept a clean sheet. The bet wins on 2-1, 1-1, 1-2 and 2-0, and loses on 2-2 and 3-1.
With the price this close to even, a modest stake makes the most sense.
Lillestrøm vs Aalesund: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.83 | 4.46 | 3.80 |
| Market average | 1.80 | 4.17 | 3.61 |
| Lowest odds | 1.75 | 3.63 | 3.20 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.08 | 86.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.37 | 1.33 | 70.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.32 | 3.15 | 29.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.91 | 1.86 | 50.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.40 | 1.36 | 68.4% |
| BTTS – no | 3.10 | 2.94 | 31.6% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 7/11/26, 04:07. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 7.5%.
Lillestrøm vs Aalesund: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Alternative markets worth a look
- Aalesund +2 at odds 1.20, chance 79%. At +2 the bet wins unless Aalesund lose by 3 or more, and a defeat by exactly 2 returns the stake. It is the safest price on the card, and it fits a game we expect to be decided by a goal.
- Both teams to score is available at 1.40, with a 68% chance. Both teams have scored in each of Aalesund's last five outings, which makes this the most logical option compared with backing a simple match result.
- Lillestrøm +0 at odds 1.42, chance 67%. A draw gives the stake back, a Lillestrøm victory pays out, and a loss costs the stake. Backing the home team this way avoids the need for any goal margin.
Lillestrøm are our pick to take the three points, and the 2-1 scoreline has the best single-score chance at 9.2%, which also leaves both of our selections in play. Our core view is the home side winning by one goal, and we are comfortable letting the rest of the card rest on that reading.
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
LillestrømWWWDLAalesundLLWLWReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Lillestrøm vs Aalesund?
Lillestrøm -0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.83); Under 3.5 goals (1.99).
Who will win Lillestrøm vs Aalesund?
Our estimate gives Lillestrøm a 52% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Aalesund 26%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 8 November 2026 at 16:00, venue Åråsen Stadion, Lillestrøm. Referee: Stian Rovig Sletner.
Who will be missing?
Lillestrøm: no absences. Aalesund: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 70% (odds 1.37) and under 2.5 goals at 30% (odds 3.32).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 68% (odds 1.40).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–1 (9.0%), then 1–1 (8.4%) and 2–2 (6.8%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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