Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Leganés vs Burgos (Segunda División, 13 November 2026, 19:30): Leganés to win at odds of 2.18. The bookmakers' odds give Leganés 44%, the draw 29% and Burgos 27%. The most likely score is 1–0.
Leganés vs Burgos preview and prediction
Can Leganés turn a poor run into a home win against a Burgos side that sits well ahead of them in the table? That is the question this match turns on, and we think the answer is yes, at least at the price on offer. The table points the other way, but the market and the home record give Leganés a real chance.
The key facts
- Likely result: Leganés 1–0 Burgos, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Leganés 17th (12 points), Burgos 8th (21 points).
- H2H: 8 matches: Leganés 2W 2D 4L, goals 7–9.
- Absences: Leganés 0, Burgos 0.
Table position and form in both camps
In this competition Burgos sit eighth with 21 points from 12 matches, while Leganés are 17th with 12 points. Those figures cover the Segunda División only, and they are the reason most readers will expect Burgos to win. We understand that instinct, but the table does not show how the two sides have been playing lately.
Leganés have taken two wins from their home fixtures at Butarque, with one draw and two defeats, so they are far from invincible there yet still collect points on their own ground. On the road, Burgos have recorded two victories, one stalemate and two losses, and their goals sit at 6:6. Neither team's home or away form stands out enough to suggest they are unbeatable.
Looking at all competitions, Leganés are in the tougher spot. Across their last five, they have not picked up a single win, managing one draw and four defeats, with 4 goals scored and 13 conceded. Burgos have been more consistent over the same stretch, collecting two victories, one draw and two losses, and their goals stand at 6:6. Neither side has posted impressive figures, but Leganés are clearly the more troubled of the two.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Castellón | 12 | 8-3-1 | 23:5 | 27 |
| 2 |  Almería | 12 | 8-2-2 | 23:10 | 26 |
| 3 |  Eibar | 12 | 7-2-3 | 21:14 | 23 |
| 4 |  Granada CF | 12 | 7-2-3 | 20:14 | 23 |
| 5 |  Mallorca | 12 | 6-4-2 | 15:7 | 22 |
| 6 |  Sporting Gijón | 12 | 7-1-4 | 13:13 | 22 |
| 7 |  Girona | 12 | 6-3-3 | 22:11 | 21 |
| 8 |  Burgos | 12 | 6-3-3 | 17:13 | 21 |
| 9 |  Oviedo | 12 | 5-3-4 | 17:15 | 18 |
| 10 |  Sabadell | 12 | 4-5-3 | 12:11 | 17 |
| 11 |  Las Palmas | 12 | 5-2-5 | 17:21 | 17 |
| 12 |  Córdoba | 12 | 5-1-6 | 19:22 | 16 |
| 13 |  Valladolid | 12 | 4-3-5 | 20:19 | 15 |
| 14 |  Tenerife | 12 | 3-6-3 | 15:17 | 15 |
| 15 |  Eldense | 12 | 4-2-6 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 16 |  Celta de Vigo II | 12 | 3-4-5 | 18:23 | 13 |
| 17 |  Leganés | 12 | 3-3-6 | 10:20 | 12 |
| 18 |  FC Andorra | 12 | 3-2-7 | 17:22 | 11 |
| 19 |  Real Sociedad II | 12 | 3-2-7 | 15:22 | 11 |
| 20 |  Cádiz | 12 | 2-4-6 | 15:16 | 10 |
| 21 |  Albacete | 12 | 2-1-9 | 10:23 | 7 |
| 22 |  AD Ceuta FC | 12 | 1-2-9 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Leganés
Home and away
Leganés vs Burgos: last matches of both teams
Leganés
Burgos
Goals, the head-to-head and what the bookmakers expect
Burgos have netted 17 and let in 13 across the campaign so far, whereas Leganés have found the net 10 times and conceded 20. On their own turf, Leganés have scored 5 and conceded 6, which hardly marks them out as a side that fills the net at home. Head to head, the edge sits with Burgos: over their last eight encounters, Leganés have taken two wins, two draws and four defeats, and the goals stand at 7:9. Their latest clash, played on 31 January 2026, ended 2-1 in Burgos's favour, and it was not the first time they had prevailed by that same margin over Leganés.
Past meetings don't decide this one for us. What they do show is a rivalry that has swung both ways, with Leganés struggling to get the upper hand over Burgos in recent times.
Neither squad has any injuries or suspensions on record, which leaves nothing in the lineups that would change the outlook. Market pricing puts expected goals at around one per side, close to two combined. The most probable exact results are 1-0 at 14.7%, followed by 1-1 at 13.2% and 0-0 at 12.2%. Bookmaker overround on the 1X2 market stands at 5.3%. We cite these numbers purely to show what the odds makers anticipate.
Leganés vs Burgos: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.18 | 3.22 | 3.52 |
| Market average | 2.18 | 3.22 | 3.52 |
| Lowest odds | 2.18 | 3.22 | 3.52 |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 7/11/26, 08:49. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.3%.
Leganés vs Burgos: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Correct score tips
The reasoning behind backing the hosts
Leganés to win at 2.18 is our pick (44% chance). It isn't cheap, yet it stands out as the best option on this card.
- In this competition, Leganés have claimed victory in two of their home fixtures.
- Odds-makers put the hosts' chance of victory at 44%.
- Leganés to win is priced at 2.18 at the most generous bookmaker.
The tip cashes on 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1 and misses on 1-1, 0-0 and 0-1. A goal-fest is not a requirement; what matters is that Leganés take the lead and hold their structure. Among the exact scores the bookmakers price as most probable, 1-0 is the winning outcome, and it also ranks as the single likeliest of them.
Head to head
All matchesLeganés vs Burgos: injuries and missing players
Leganés
- No reported absences
Burgos
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
No second bet on this card
Our only recommendation for this fixture is Leganés to win at 2.18, as no other bet stands out to us.
Who will win Leganés vs Burgos?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Our verdict on Leganés against Burgos
Burgos sit higher in the standings and hold the stronger head-to-head record, and we give both their due. Even so, Leganés at home at 2.18 looks like value we are happy to back, and the home win is the only selection we plan to put money on in this match.
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Leganés vs Burgos?
Leganés to win (2.18).
Who will win Leganés vs Burgos?
Our estimate gives Leganés a 44% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Burgos 27%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 13 November 2026 at 19:30, venue Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganés.
Who will be missing?
Leganés: no absences. Burgos: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–0 (14.7%), then 1–1 (13.2%) and 0–0 (12.2%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.