Girona vs Almería: prediction, odds and betting tip – 8 November 2026, Segunda División

Girona vs Almería preview and prediction

Does Girona's strong home form matter more than Almería sitting second and Girona seventh in the standings? Our view is yes, at least where the result is concerned. Goals are a separate matter, and for that part of the match we approach it from a different angle.

Almería's table position against Montilivi

Almería sit on 26 points after 12 outings in this league, built from 8 victories, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 23 goals scored against 10 conceded. Girona, who have played the same 12 matches, have collected 21 points from 6 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses, and their tally reads 22 scored to 11 conceded. Looking at the table alone, Almería are the side with the better season so far, and that is hard to dispute. Their road record is a different story, however: 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 8 goals netted and 5 let in.

Girona's record at home is the figure that keeps drawing our attention. Montilivi has seen 4 victories, 2 draws and 1 loss from them, with 16 goals scored and 6 conceded. The stadium seats 14500, and although that number proves nothing on its own, a team that concedes so rarely on its own turf commands attention.

Form from all competitions, not just the league

Because these scores span every competition, they won't always line up with the league table. Girona played out a 0-0 draw with Mallorca at home and a 1-1 draw at Tenerife, then won 2-0 against FC Andorra and 5-1 against Celta de Vigo II, before falling 1-0 away to Real Sociedad II. In those five matches they recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 3. What stands out most to us is that they dropped just one of their last five.

Almería's recent results read better than their league position suggests. They beat Burgos 2-1 and Leganés 3-0 at home, then claimed a 4-2 win away to Real Sociedad II. Draws followed, 2-2 against Oviedo and 1-1 at Eibar. Across those five matches they have collected 3 wins and 2 draws without a single loss, scoring 12 and conceding 6. Still, we doubt that this form is enough to beat a home team with a consistent record.

Head-to-head: Girona have the edge

Across their last 16 head-to-head meetings, Girona have collected 7 wins to Almería's 4, with 5 draws, and the goals stand at 26:17. Our latest record is a goalless draw in Almería on 14 January 2024. Earlier, on 22 October 2023, Girona won 5-2 at home over Almería. The record gives the home team the edge, yet the gap is not wide enough to decide the match by itself.

No team news to weigh

Neither team has reported any absences, so injuries and suspensions play no part in this assessment. Our reasoning is built on recent results, head-to-head history and the current odds.

What the prices say, and where they disagree with the table

Oddsmakers see Girona as the most probable winner at 46%, and their top price on a Girona victory is 2.07. Backing a draw gives 26% at best odds of 3.78, while an Almería triumph carries 28% with a best price of 3.53. Expected goals come out at Girona 2 and Almería 1, roughly 3 in all, and 1-1, 2-1 and 1-0 rank as the likeliest exact results. On league form Almería look stronger, yet the market leans toward Girona, and that split between table and prices is what makes this fixture worth watching.

Girona +0 is priced at 62% with best odds of 1.58, while Girona -0.5 sits at 47% and 2.08. That is a market expecting Girona to win without expecting a comfortable margin. The 7.8% margin on the result does not alter how we read these prices.

Our Girona vs Almería betting tip: Girona +0

Our pick is Girona +0 at odds 1.58, which the market prices at a 62% chance. Under this line, a Girona victory pays out, a draw gives back the stake, and a loss costs the stake. Only one of Girona's last five matches has ended in defeat. At Montilivi they have collected 4 wins and 2 draws, with 1 loss. In 16 previous meetings with Almería, Girona have taken 7 wins to Almería's 4. Each of these points in the same direction, and the odds sit near the probability the market already assigns.

Next up, Under 3.5 goals at 1.50, which the market rates at roughly 65%. Our reasoning is more specific. In their last 5 games, Girona went over 2.5 goals just once, and they recorded a clean sheet in 2 of those 5. They are not a team that tends to produce high-scoring matches, so we anticipate a home side with that profile keeping the total low. This selection also lands on 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 and 0-1, which include the three most likely exact results.

Three alternative wagers worth a look

• Girona or draw (1X) at 1.36, with a 72% probability. This line wins if Girona take the points outright or the game finishes level, so it lines up with our first pick and leaves more margin should the score stay even.
• Over 1.5 goals at 1.25, with a 78% chance. It offers the lowest odds anywhere on this page and pairs easily with our Under 3.5 tip.
• Girona +0.25 (Asian handicap) at 1.42, with a 67% probability. Split the stake evenly between Girona +0 and Girona +0.5; in a draw, the +0.5 leg still pays out, which the +0 leg on its own would not.

Girona look best to grab a narrow win, so keep the stake small

Girona look likely to take this at home, though we would not back Almería based on league position alone. Almería have been the better side in this competition and have a stronger recent run across all competitions, so this is far from a safe call. We favour Girona because of their home form and the head-to-head history, and neither fully shows up in the standings. Our suggested bet is Girona +0 at 1.58, staked modestly, with Under 3.5 goals as a further selection.