Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 19 October 2026 · 20:00 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium (Derry), Derry City take on St Patrick's Athletic, with Aaron O'Dowd in charge. We rate the game as a toss-up. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athletic: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Derry City lie 5th, having collected 48 points after 36 matches (11W 15D 10L); St Patrick's Athletic lie 3rd, having collected 60 points (17W 9D 10L).
- Head to head. In 32 previous meetings, Derry City have taken 15 wins to St Patrick's Athletic's 7 wins, plus 10 draws; the goal tally stands at 39–25.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 1–1 scoreline, around 2 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (12.5%). This one looks finely poised.
On goals we go for Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.83), which we give a 53% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 52%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 47%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 32; Derry City 15 wins, 10 draws, St Patrick's Athletic 7 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.0 goals a game on average.
- Our projection is around 2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 47%.
- Unavailable: Derry City 0, St Patrick's Athletic 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 52%, top price 1.80). A projection of around 2 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Derry City: no absences. St Patrick's Athletic will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athletic: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.60 | 3.38 | 2.17 |
| Market average | 3.38 | 3.23 | 2.09 |
| Lowest odds | 3.05 | 3.01 | 2.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | 1.30 | 71.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.06 | 2.01 | 46.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.83 | 1.76 | 53.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.75 | 3.49 | 26.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.80 | 1.77 | 52.2% |
| BTTS – no | 1.95 | 1.93 | 47.8% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 19/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 8.5%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Derry City 1–1 St Patrick's Athletic, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Derry City 5th (48 points), St Patrick's Athletic 3rd (60 points).
- H2H: 32 matches: Derry City 15W 10D 7L, goals 39–25.
- Absences: Derry City 0, St Patrick's Athletic 0.
Who will win Derry City vs St Patrick's Athletic?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athletic: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athletic: injuries and missing players
Derry City
- No reported absences
St Patrick's Athletic
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Shamrock Rovers | 36 | 20-8-8 | 59:38 | 68 |
| 2 |  Bohemians | 36 | 19-8-9 | 63:44 | 65 |
| 3 | St Patrick's Athletic | 36 | 17-9-10 | 55:31 | 60 |
| 4 |  Shelbourne | 36 | 12-13-11 | 52:50 | 49 |
| 5 | Derry City | 36 | 11-15-10 | 50:47 | 48 |
| 6 |  Dundalk | 36 | 11-12-13 | 55:59 | 45 |
| 7 |  Waterford | 36 | 10-13-13 | 54:61 | 43 |
| 8 |  Galway United | 36 | 10-12-14 | 46:53 | 42 |
| 9 |  Drogheda United | 36 | 10-10-16 | 44:57 | 40 |
| 10 |  Sligo Rovers | 36 | 5-10-21 | 28:66 | 25 |
Recent matches
Derry City
Home and away
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athletic: last matches of both teams
Derry City
St Patrick's Athletic
Head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athletic?
Derry City or draw (1X) (1.75); Under 2.5 goals (1.83).
Who will win Derry City vs St Patrick's Athletic?
Our estimate gives Derry City a 27% chance of winning, the draw 29% and St Patrick's Athletic 44%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 19 October 2026 at 20:00, venue The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry. Referee: Aaron O'Dowd.
Who will be missing?
Derry City: no absences. St Patrick's Athletic: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 47% (odds 2.06) and under 2.5 goals at 53% (odds 1.83).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 52% (odds 1.80).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (12.5%), then 0–1 (11.3%) and 1–2 (9.0%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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