Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 23 October 2026 · 19:45 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium (Derry), Derry City take on Dundalk, with M. Lynch in charge. We make Derry City (55%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: Derry City win. Loses: a draw, Derry City lose.
Derry City vs Dundalk: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Derry City lie 5th, having collected 48 points after 36 matches (11W 15D 10L); Dundalk lie 6th, having collected 45 points (11W 12D 13L).
- Head to head. In 29 previous meetings, Derry City have taken 8 wins to Dundalk's 9 wins, plus 12 draws; the goal tally stands at 46–41.
What to expect
In our view Derry City hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (10.3%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.54), which we give a 61% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 59%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 60%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 29; Derry City 8 wins, 12 draws, Dundalk 9 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.0 goals a game on average.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
- Unavailable: Derry City 0, Dundalk 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 60%, top price 1.64). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Derry City: no absences. Dundalk will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Derry City vs Dundalk: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.92 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Market average | 1.70 | 3.92 | 4.30 |
| Lowest odds | 1.65 | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 1.15 | 80.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.64 | 1.57 | 59.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.40 | 2.33 | 40.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.57 | 2.39 | 38.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.56 | 59.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.27 | 40.8% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 23/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 7.7%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Derry City 1–1 Dundalk, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Derry City 5th (48 points), Dundalk 6th (45 points).
- H2H: 29 matches: Derry City 8W 12D 9L, goals 46–41.
- Absences: Derry City 0, Dundalk 0.
Who will win Derry City vs Dundalk?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Derry City vs Dundalk: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Derry City vs Dundalk: injuries and missing players
Derry City
- No reported absences
Dundalk
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Shamrock Rovers | 36 | 20-8-8 | 59:38 | 68 |
| 2 |  Bohemians | 36 | 19-8-9 | 63:44 | 65 |
| 3 |  St Patrick's Athletic | 36 | 17-9-10 | 55:31 | 60 |
| 4 |  Shelbourne | 36 | 12-13-11 | 52:50 | 49 |
| 5 | Derry City | 36 | 11-15-10 | 50:47 | 48 |
| 6 | Dundalk | 36 | 11-12-13 | 55:59 | 45 |
| 7 |  Waterford | 36 | 10-13-13 | 54:61 | 43 |
| 8 |  Galway United | 36 | 10-12-14 | 46:53 | 42 |
| 9 |  Drogheda United | 36 | 10-10-16 | 44:57 | 40 |
| 10 |  Sligo Rovers | 36 | 5-10-21 | 28:66 | 25 |
Recent matches
Derry City
Home and away
Derry City vs Dundalk: last matches of both teams
Derry City
Dundalk
Head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Derry City vs Dundalk?
Derry City -0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.93); Under 3.5 goals (1.54).
Who will win Derry City vs Dundalk?
Our estimate gives Derry City a 55% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Dundalk 22%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 23 October 2026 at 19:45, venue The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry. Referee: M. Lynch.
Who will be missing?
Derry City: no absences. Dundalk: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 60% (odds 1.64) and under 2.5 goals at 40% (odds 2.40).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 59% (odds 1.57).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (10.3%), then 2–1 (9.8%) and 1–0 (9.0%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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