Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Swindon Town vs Grimsby (League Two, 14 November 2026, 15:00): Swindon Town or draw (1X) at odds of 1.80. Second tip: Both teams to score at odds of 1.53. The bookmakers' odds give Swindon Town 29%, the draw 26% and Grimsby 46%. The most likely score is 1–1.
Swindon Town vs Grimsby preview and prediction
Our tip for Swindon Town against Grimsby is Swindon Town or draw (1X) at odds 1.80, which gives it a 54% chance. The match is a League Two fixture at the County Ground on 14 November, kick-off 15:00, and we like the home side to avoid defeat rather than to win outright. The visitors sit higher in the table, but we think the home record is the better guide here.
The key facts
- Likely result: Swindon Town 1–1 Grimsby, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Swindon Town 13th (19 points), Grimsby 6th (20 points).
- Form in the competition: Swindon Town 5W 4D 5L (15:17), Grimsby 5W 5D 4L (24:18).
- H2H: 14 matches: Swindon Town 7W 2D 5L, goals 28–19.
- Absences: Swindon Town 0, Grimsby 0.
Swindon's home record carries the argument
Swindon are 13th in this competition with 19 points from 14 matches, after 5 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats. They have scored 15 and conceded 17, which is 1.1 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. Those are modest figures, and nobody should read them as the profile of a side that dominates games.
The County Ground is where the picture improves. In this competition at home they have won 4, drawn 2 and lost just 1, scoring 12 and conceding 7. That split is the reason Swindon sit at the top of our list, and we would trust it over the flat season totals.
Their recent results in all competitions point the same way. Swindon lost only 1 of their last 5 matches, a 0-1 home defeat to Crewe, and the rest of the run included a 1-1 home draw with Walsall, a 3-1 win at Barnet, a 0-0 draw at Bristol Rovers and a 2-1 home win over Rotherham. None of that is spectacular, but it is the form of a team that is hard to get past.
Who will win Swindon Town vs Grimsby?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Grimsby's attack is real, their away form is not
Grimsby are 6th with 20 points from 14 matches in this competition, built on 5 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats. They have scored 24 and conceded 18, which is 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. The gap in attack is the clearest difference between the sides, and it is a genuine one.
Away from home the case thins out. In this competition they have managed 1 win, 4 draws and 2 defeats on the road, scoring 11 and conceding 10. Four away draws means a lot of points left behind, and that is why we would not back Grimsby to win at Swindon.
Their last five matches in all competitions show a side that scores. They lost 1-0 at Port Vale and 0-2 at home to Northampton, drew 2-2 at Rochdale, won 4-1 at Gillingham and beat York 5-2 at home. The league table covers this competition only, while those results come from all competitions, so the two do not tell exactly the same story.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Salford City | 14 | 10-1-3 | 25:15 | 31 |
| 2 |  Barnet | 13 | 7-5-1 | 28:18 | 26 |
| 3 |  Walsall | 13 | 5-7-1 | 21:12 | 22 |
| 4 |  Crewe | 14 | 5-7-2 | 17:17 | 22 |
| 5 |  Cheltenham | 14 | 6-3-5 | 23:25 | 21 |
| 6 |  Grimsby | 14 | 5-5-4 | 24:18 | 20 |
| 7 |  York | 14 | 5-5-4 | 24:21 | 20 |
| 8 |  Gillingham | 14 | 5-5-4 | 20:19 | 20 |
| 9 |  Accrington ST | 14 | 4-7-3 | 23:17 | 19 |
| 10 |  Chesterfield | 14 | 5-4-5 | 24:21 | 19 |
| 11 |  Tranmere | 14 | 4-7-3 | 19:17 | 19 |
| 12 |  Exeter City | 14 | 5-4-5 | 11:9 | 19 |
| 13 |  Swindon Town | 14 | 5-4-5 | 15:17 | 19 |
| 14 |  Newport County | 14 | 4-6-4 | 20:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Shrewsbury | 14 | 5-3-6 | 17:22 | 18 |
| 16 |  Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4-5-5 | 18:18 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5-1-8 | 17:23 | 16 |
| 18 |  Oldham | 14 | 4-3-7 | 15:19 | 15 |
| 19 |  Port Vale | 12 | 4-3-5 | 10:14 | 15 |
| 20 |  Rochdale | 14 | 4-3-7 | 17:26 | 15 |
| 21 |  Northampton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 9:10 | 14 |
| 22 |  Rotherham | 14 | 2-6-6 | 18:25 | 12 |
| 23 |  Colchester | 13 | 2-6-5 | 12:19 | 12 |
| 24 |  Crawley Town | 12 | 2-3-7 | 13:21 | 9 |
Recent matches
Swindon Town
Home and away
No meetings on record and no team news
There is no earlier meeting between these clubs on record, so no head-to-head pattern can be drawn. Neither side has any reported absence, so we are judging both teams as they are expected to line up. Team news gives no clear lean either way.
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
Swindon TownWDWDLGrimsbyWWDLLOur Swindon Town vs Grimsby betting tip: Swindon Town or draw
Swindon Town or draw (1X) at 1.80 is our headline selection, and the market agrees it is live: the chance is 54%. Only 1 defeat in their last 5 outings is a good story, but we put the most weight on the home numbers, 4 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss at the County Ground. A home side that is hard to beat on its own patch is a sound base for a price like this.
The tip cashes on 1-1, 2-1 and 2-2 and goes down on 1-2, 0-1 and 0-2. The most likely exact score, 1-1 at 10.6%, pays out for us. The one that hurts is 1-2 at 9.3%, a Grimsby win by a single goal, and we are not pretending otherwise. The bookmakers make Grimsby to win 46% at best odds of 2.05, so they clearly regard the visitors as the likelier side to take the points. We simply think they are overrating the away win.
Swindon Town vs Grimsby: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Correct score tips
Our second tip: Both teams to score
Our second tip is both teams to score at odds 1.53, with a chance of 61%. Both sides have scored in 3 of their last 5 matches in all competitions, and the expected total of about 3 goals, with Swindon around 1 and Grimsby around 2, fits that pattern. The bet wins on 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 and 2-2 and loses only on 0-1 and 0-2.
We like it more than the main tip for one simple reason. Swindon do not have to win or even avoid defeat by a single goal. They only need to score, and Grimsby have been finding the net regularly, so the bet asks less of the home side than the 1X does.
Swindon Town vs Grimsby: last matches of both teams
Swindon Town
Grimsby
Head to head
All matchesThree other bets that sit with our tips
Swindon Town +1.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.30, with a chance of 74%, wins unless Swindon lose by 2 or more. It gives more room than a straight 1X and fits the home record, so it is the extra we would take first. Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.55, with a chance of 61%, is sensible if you think the expected total of about 3 will hold. Swindon Town +1 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.42, with a chance of 67%, wins unless Swindon lose by 2 or more, and a defeat by exactly 1 returns the stake, which makes it a steadier shape of the Swindon idea.
Swindon Town vs Grimsby: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.30 | 3.66 | 2.05 |
| Market average | 3.24 | 3.61 | 2.01 |
| Lowest odds | 3.20 | 3.50 | 1.99 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.15 | 80.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 1.57 | 59.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 2.32 | 40.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.40 | 2.36 | 39.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.53 | 1.51 | 61.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.44 | 2.41 | 38.5% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 3/11/26, 16:27. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 8.2%.
Swindon Town vs Grimsby: injuries and missing players
Swindon Town
- No reported absences
Grimsby
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
The score we expect at the County Ground
We expect Swindon to make Grimsby work for every goal, while the visitors still find a way onto the scoresheet. That is why 1-1 is our most likely score, the top-rated exact result at 10.6%, and it keeps both of our tips alive. Our reasons rest on the home split, the away weakness of Grimsby and the recent scoring of both sides.
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Swindon Town vs Grimsby?
Swindon Town or draw (1X) (1.80); Both teams to score (1.53).
Who will win Swindon Town vs Grimsby?
Our estimate gives Swindon Town a 29% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Grimsby 46%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 14 November 2026 at 15:00, venue County Ground, Swindon.
Who will be missing?
Swindon Town: no absences. Grimsby: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 60% (odds 1.60) and under 2.5 goals at 40% (odds 2.35).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 61% (odds 1.53).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (10.6%), then 1–2 (9.3%) and 0–1 (7.9%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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