Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 20 October 2026 · 19:45 at Spotland Stadium (Rochdale), Rochdale take on Grimsby, with D. Bourne in charge. We rate the game as a toss-up. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
Wins: Grimsby win. Half lost (half the stake back): a draw. Loses: Grimsby lose.
Rochdale vs Grimsby: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Rochdale lie 20th, having collected 15 points after 14 matches (4W 3D 7L); Grimsby lie 6th, having collected 20 points (5W 5D 4L).
What to expect
In our view Grimsby hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.2%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.50), which we give a 64% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 60%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 57%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
- Unavailable: Rochdale 0, Grimsby 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 60%, top price 1.60). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Rochdale: no absences. Grimsby will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Rochdale vs Grimsby: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 3.30 | 3.83 | 2.16 |
| Market average | 3.17 | 3.58 | 2.08 |
| Lowest odds | 2.75 | 3.13 | 2.02 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 1.18 | 78.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.76 | 1.66 | 56.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.26 | 2.17 | 43.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.67 | 2.55 | 36.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.60 | 1.55 | 59.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.45 | 2.31 | 40.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 20/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 7.8%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Rochdale 1–1 Grimsby, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Rochdale 20th (15 points), Grimsby 6th (20 points).
- Absences: Rochdale 0, Grimsby 0.
Who will win Rochdale vs Grimsby?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Rochdale vs Grimsby: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Rochdale vs Grimsby: injuries and missing players
Rochdale
- No reported absences
Grimsby
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Salford City | 14 | 10-1-3 | 25:15 | 31 |
| 2 |  Barnet | 13 | 7-5-1 | 28:18 | 26 |
| 3 |  Walsall | 13 | 5-7-1 | 21:12 | 22 |
| 4 |  Crewe | 14 | 5-7-2 | 17:17 | 22 |
| 5 |  Cheltenham | 14 | 6-3-5 | 23:25 | 21 |
| 6 | Grimsby | 14 | 5-5-4 | 24:18 | 20 |
| 7 |  York | 14 | 5-5-4 | 24:21 | 20 |
| 8 |  Gillingham | 14 | 5-5-4 | 20:19 | 20 |
| 9 |  Accrington ST | 14 | 4-7-3 | 23:17 | 19 |
| 10 |  Chesterfield | 14 | 5-4-5 | 24:21 | 19 |
| 11 |  Tranmere | 14 | 4-7-3 | 19:17 | 19 |
| 12 |  Exeter City | 14 | 5-4-5 | 11:9 | 19 |
| 13 |  Swindon Town | 14 | 5-4-5 | 15:17 | 19 |
| 14 |  Newport County | 14 | 4-6-4 | 20:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Shrewsbury | 14 | 5-3-6 | 17:22 | 18 |
| 16 |  Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4-5-5 | 18:18 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5-1-8 | 17:23 | 16 |
| 18 |  Oldham | 14 | 4-3-7 | 15:19 | 15 |
| 19 |  Port Vale | 12 | 4-3-5 | 10:14 | 15 |
| 20 | Rochdale | 14 | 4-3-7 | 17:26 | 15 |
| 21 |  Northampton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 9:10 | 14 |
| 22 |  Rotherham | 14 | 2-6-6 | 18:25 | 12 |
| 23 |  Colchester | 13 | 2-6-5 | 12:19 | 12 |
| 24 |  Crawley Town | 12 | 2-3-7 | 13:21 | 9 |
Recent matches
Rochdale
Home and away
Rochdale vs Grimsby: last matches of both teams
Rochdale
Grimsby
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Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Rochdale vs Grimsby?
Grimsby -0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.92); Under 3.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win Rochdale vs Grimsby?
Our estimate gives Rochdale a 29% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Grimsby 45%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 20 October 2026 at 19:45, venue Spotland Stadium, Rochdale. Referee: D. Bourne.
Who will be missing?
Rochdale: no absences. Grimsby: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 57% (odds 1.76) and under 2.5 goals at 43% (odds 2.26).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 60% (odds 1.60).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.2%), then 1–2 (9.3%) and 0–1 (8.6%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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