Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Fortuna Sittard welcome Excelsior on 25 October 2026 · 11:15 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion (Sitard), and the referee is Ingmar Oostrom. We cannot separate the two sides. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Fortuna Sittard lie 6th, having collected 19 points after 11 matches (5W 4D 2L); Excelsior lie 15th, having collected 11 points (3W 2D 6L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Fortuna Sittard average 1.8 goals for and 1.9 against, compared with 1.8 for and 2.0 against for Excelsior.
- Form in the competition. Fortuna Sittard: 4W 3D 2L, goals 16–17; Excelsior: 3W 2D 4L, goals 16–18.
- Head to head. In 9 previous meetings, Fortuna Sittard have taken 5 wins to Excelsior's 2 wins, plus 2 draws; the goal tally stands at 16–11.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 1–1 scoreline, around 2 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.7%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
Worth noting: the league table leans towards the Fortuna Sittard, but the bookmakers make the away side slight favourites. Mixed signals like these make the game hard to predict, so it pays to bet with caution.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), which we give a 66% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 60%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 55%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 9; Fortuna Sittard 5 wins, 2 draws, Excelsior 2 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.0 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Fortuna Sittard 16–17, Excelsior 16–18.
- Our projection is around 2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
- Unavailable: Fortuna Sittard 9, Excelsior 0.
Alternative tip: Draw or Excelsior (X2)
Another angle: Draw or Excelsior (X2) (probability 64%, top price 1.50). A projection of around 2 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Fortuna Sittard: R. Bayram, J. Dahlhaus, I. Marquez, Y. Oukili, R. Guth, M. Ihattaren, E. Michut, O. Romeny, L. Zeefuik. Excelsior will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.72 | 3.59 | 2.63 |
| Market average | 2.64 | 3.44 | 2.57 |
| Lowest odds | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.21 | 77.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.79 | 1.73 | 54.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 2.09 | 45.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.90 | 2.75 | 34.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.55 | 59.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.40 | 2.30 | 40.3% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 25/10/26, 09:03. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.0%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Fortuna Sittard 1–1 Excelsior, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Fortuna Sittard 6th (19 points), Excelsior 15th (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Fortuna Sittard 4W 3D 2L (16:17), Excelsior 3W 2D 4L (16:18).
- H2H: 9 matches: Fortuna Sittard 5W 2D 2L, goals 16–11.
- Absences: Fortuna Sittard 9, Excelsior 0.
Who will win Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: injuries and missing players
Fortuna Sittard
- R. Bayramknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Dahlhausnot in the squad · will miss the match
- I. Marquezinjury · will miss the match
- Y. Oukiligroin injury · will miss the match
- R. Guthnot in the squad · doubtful
- M. Ihattareninjury · doubtful
- E. Michutnot in the squad · doubtful
- O. Romenyankle injury · doubtful
- L. Zeefuiknot in the squad · doubtful
Excelsior
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3-3-6 | 13:24 | 12 |
| 14 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 12 | 0-3-9 | 11:40 | 3 |
Recent matches
Fortuna Sittard
Home and away
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: last matches of both teams
Fortuna Sittard
Excelsior
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
Fortuna SittardDWDDWExcelsiorLLLLDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
Over 2.5 goals (1.79); Draw or Excelsior (X2) (1.50).
Who will win Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
Our estimate gives Fortuna Sittard a 36% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Excelsior 37%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 25 October 2026 at 11:15, venue Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sitard. Referee: Ingmar Oostrom.
Who will be missing?
Fortuna Sittard: R. Bayram, J. Dahlhaus, I. Marquez, Y. Oukili, R. Guth, M. Ihattaren, E. Michut, O. Romeny, L. Zeefuik. Excelsior: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 55% (odds 1.79) and under 2.5 goals at 45% (odds 2.15).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 60% (odds 1.57).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.7%), then 1–2 (8.5%) and 0–1 (8.4%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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