Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
FC St. Pauli welcome 1. FC Nürnberg on 1 November 2026 · 12:30 at Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg), and the referee is R. Hartmann. We cannot separate the two sides. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: 1. FC Nürnberg win, a draw. Loses: 1. FC Nürnberg lose.
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. FC St. Pauli lie 8th, having collected 12 points after 10 matches (2W 6D 2L); 1. FC Nürnberg lie 2nd, having collected 21 points (6W 3D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, FC St. Pauli average 1.2 goals for and 1.0 against, compared with 2.3 for and 1.3 against for 1. FC Nürnberg.
- Form in the competition. FC St. Pauli: 2W 6D 1L, goals 11–9; 1. FC Nürnberg: 5W 3D 1L, goals 21–12.
- Head to head. In 21 previous meetings, FC St. Pauli have taken 11 wins to 1. FC Nürnberg's 4 wins, plus 6 draws; the goal tally stands at 32–28.
What to expect
In our view FC St. Pauli hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.2%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
Worth noting: the league table leans towards the 1. FC Nürnberg, but the bookmakers make the home side slight favourites. Mixed signals like these make the game hard to predict, so it pays to bet with caution.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.50), which we give a 64% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 60%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 57%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 21; FC St. Pauli 11 wins, 6 draws, 1. FC Nürnberg 4 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.9 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: FC St. Pauli 11–9, 1. FC Nürnberg 21–12.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
- Unavailable: FC St. Pauli 0, 1. FC Nürnberg 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: yes
Another angle: Both teams to score: yes (probability 60%, top price 1.57). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for FC St. Pauli: no absences. 1. FC Nürnberg will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.19 | 3.75 | 3.34 |
| Market average | 2.12 | 3.58 | 3.15 |
| Lowest odds | 2.05 | 3.28 | 2.91 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 1.18 | 78.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 1.66 | 56.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.24 | 2.17 | 43.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.67 | 2.56 | 36.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.53 | 60.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.40 | 2.35 | 39.5% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 1/11/26, 12:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 7.1%.
The key facts
- Likely result: FC St. Pauli 1–1 1. FC Nürnberg, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: FC St. Pauli 8th (12 points), 1. FC Nürnberg 2nd (21 points).
- Form in the competition: FC St. Pauli 2W 6D 1L (11:9), 1. FC Nürnberg 5W 3D 1L (21:12).
- H2H: 21 matches: FC St. Pauli 11W 6D 4L, goals 32–28.
- Absences: FC St. Pauli 0, 1. FC Nürnberg 0.
Who will win FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg: injuries and missing players
FC St. Pauli
- No reported absences
1. FC Nürnberg
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hertha BSC | 10 | 9-1-0 | 23:8 | 28 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 10 | 6-3-1 | 24:13 | 21 |
| 3 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 10 | 5-4-1 | 25:14 | 19 |
| 4 |  1. FC Kaiserslautern | 10 | 5-3-2 | 9:7 | 18 |
| 5 |  1. FC Magdeburg | 10 | 5-2-3 | 21:13 | 17 |
| 6 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 10 | 4-3-3 | 17:18 | 15 |
| 7 |  Arminia Bielefeld | 10 | 4-2-4 | 16:15 | 14 |
| 8 | FC St. Pauli | 10 | 2-6-2 | 12:12 | 12 |
| 9 |  SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 11 | 3-3-5 | 13:19 | 12 |
| 10 |  Energie Cottbus | 11 | 2-5-4 | 18:20 | 11 |
| 11 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:18 | 11 |
| 12 |  VfL Osnabrück | 10 | 3-2-5 | 14:17 | 11 |
| 13 |  VfL Bochum | 10 | 3-2-5 | 8:11 | 11 |
| 14 |  Dynamo Dresden | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:20 | 11 |
| 15 |  Hannover 96 | 10 | 3-2-5 | 10:16 | 11 |
| 16 |  Karlsruher SC | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:21 | 11 |
| 17 |  SV Darmstadt 98 | 10 | 2-3-5 | 9:19 | 9 |
| 18 |  Holstein Kiel | 10 | 1-5-4 | 10:12 | 8 |
Recent matches
FC St. Pauli
Home and away
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg: last matches of both teams
FC St. Pauli
1. FC Nürnberg
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
FC St. PauliLDDWD1. FC NürnbergWLDDWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Nürnberg +0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.78); Under 3.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our estimate gives FC St. Pauli a 44% chance of winning, the draw 26% and 1. FC Nürnberg 30%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 1 November 2026 at 12:30, venue Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg. Referee: R. Hartmann.
Who will be missing?
FC St. Pauli: no absences. 1. FC Nürnberg: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 57% (odds 1.70) and under 2.5 goals at 43% (odds 2.24).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 60% (odds 1.57).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.2%), then 2–1 (9.3%) and 1–0 (8.6%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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