Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
FC Lugano welcome Kauno Žalgiris on 5 November 2026 · 20:00 at AIL Arena (Lugano), and the referee is Yigal Frid, Israel. FC Lugano (82%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. FC Lugano lie 1st, having collected 9 points after 3 matches (3W 0D 0L); Kauno Žalgiris lie 36th, having collected 0 points (0W 0D 3L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, FC Lugano average 2.6 goals for and 1.1 against, compared with 0.5 for and 4.0 against for Kauno Žalgiris.
- Form in the competition. FC Lugano: 6W 2D 0L, goals 21–9; Kauno Žalgiris: 0W 0D 2L, goals 1–8.
What to expect
In our view FC Lugano hold the advantage. We project a 3–1 scoreline, around 4 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–0 (13.3%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
With the result at a short price (1.19), the goals markets are also worth considering: Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.47), which we give a 66% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 43%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 66%.
The prediction at a glance
- Scored and conceded in this competition: FC Lugano 21–9, Kauno Žalgiris 1–8.
- Our projection is around 4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 66%.
- Unavailable: FC Lugano 0, Kauno Žalgiris 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: no
Another angle: Both teams to score: no (probability 57%, top price 1.67). A projection of around 4 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for FC Lugano: no absences. Kauno Žalgiris will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.19 | 9.49 | 19.59 |
| Market average | 1.15 | 7.86 | 16.64 |
| Lowest odds | 1.12 | 6.66 | 12.04 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 1.11 | 84.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.47 | 1.42 | 65.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.88 | 2.72 | 34.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.21 | 2.09 | 45.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.20 | 2.15 | 43.1% |
| BTTS – no | 1.67 | 1.63 | 56.9% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 5/11/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.9%.
The key facts
- Likely result: FC Lugano 2–0 Kauno Žalgiris, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: FC Lugano 1st (9 points), Kauno Žalgiris 36th (0 points).
- Form in the competition: FC Lugano 6W 2D 0L (21:9), Kauno Žalgiris 0W 0D 2L (1:8).
- Absences: FC Lugano 0, Kauno Žalgiris 0.
Who will win FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris: injuries and missing players
FC Lugano
- No reported absences
Kauno Žalgiris
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 3 | 3-0-0 | 11:4 | 9 |
| 2 |  Panathinaikos | 3 | 3-0-0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 3 |  Twente | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:2 | 9 |
| 4 |  Monaco | 3 | 3-0-0 | 7:1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Brighton | 3 | 2-1-0 | 5:0 | 7 |
| 6 |  Brann | 3 | 2-1-0 | 7:3 | 7 |
| 7 |  FC Copenhagen | 3 | 2-1-0 | 7:3 | 7 |
| 8 |  Universitatea Craiova | 3 | 2-1-0 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 9 |  Mjällby AIF | 3 | 2-1-0 | 5:1 | 7 |
| 10 |  St. Truiden | 3 | 2-1-0 | 4:1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Ajax | 3 | 2-0-1 | 9:3 | 6 |
| 12 |  Trabzonspor | 3 | 2-0-1 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 13 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | 2-0-1 | 3:2 | 6 |
| 14 |  SC Freiburg | 3 | 2-0-1 | 4:5 | 6 |
| 15 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 1-1-1 | 6:6 | 4 |
| 16 |  Atalanta | 3 | 1-1-1 | 4:4 | 4 |
| 17 |  SC Braga | 3 | 1-1-1 | 2:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  Gent | 3 | 1-1-1 | 1:2 | 4 |
| 19 |  Riga | 3 | 0-3-0 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 20 |  FC Thun | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 21 |  Borac Banja Luka | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 22 |  Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 23 |  FK Jablonec | 3 | 0-2-1 | 3:4 | 2 |
| 24 |  Aarhus | 3 | 0-2-1 | 1:2 | 2 |
| 25 |  FC Nordsjælland | 3 | 0-2-1 | 3:5 | 2 |
| 26 |  Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 3 | 0-2-1 | 2:4 | 2 |
| 27 |  Kairat Almaty | 3 | 0-2-1 | 3:7 | 2 |
| 28 |  CSKA Sofia | 3 | 0-1-2 | 4:6 | 1 |
| 29 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:5 | 1 |
| 30 |  Pafos | 3 | 0-1-2 | 3:7 | 1 |
| 31 |  Getafe | 3 | 0-1-2 | 3:7 | 1 |
| 32 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 33 |  KuPS | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 34 |  FC Midtjylland | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1:11 | 0 |
Recent matches
FC Lugano
Home and away
FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris: last matches of both teams
FC Lugano
Kauno Žalgiris
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
FC LuganoWWWKauno ŽalgirisLLLReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris?
FC Lugano -2 (Asian handicap) (1.82); Over 2.5 goals (1.47).
Who will win FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris?
Our estimate gives FC Lugano a 82% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Kauno Žalgiris 6%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 5 November 2026 at 20:00, venue AIL Arena, Lugano. Referee: Yigal Frid, Israel.
Who will be missing?
FC Lugano: no absences. Kauno Žalgiris: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 66% (odds 1.47) and under 2.5 goals at 34% (odds 2.88).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 43% (odds 2.20).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–0 (13.3%), then 3–0 (12.2%) and 1–0 (9.6%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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