Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Estoril vs Moreirense, 25 October 2026 · 15:30 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota (Estoril), with C. Macedo officiating. The odds point to Estoril (52%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Wins: Estoril win. Loses: a draw, Estoril lose.
Estoril vs Moreirense: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Estoril lie 18th, having collected 2 points after 10 matches (0W 2D 8L); Moreirense lie 9th, having collected 14 points (4W 2D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Estoril average 0.5 goals for and 1.5 against, compared with 1.0 for and 1.9 against for Moreirense.
- Form in the competition. Estoril: 0W 2D 6L, goals 4–12; Moreirense: 2W 2D 4L, goals 8–15.
- Head to head. In 19 previous meetings, Estoril have taken 6 wins to Moreirense's 6 wins, plus 7 draws; the goal tally stands at 26–25.
What to expect
In our view Estoril hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.7%). This one looks finely poised.
Worth noting: the league table leans towards the Moreirense, but the bookmakers make the home side slight favourites. Mixed signals like these make the game hard to predict, so it pays to bet with caution.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.83), which we give a 51% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 51%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 49%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 19; Estoril 6 wins, 7 draws, Moreirense 6 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 2.7 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Estoril 4–12, Moreirense 8–15.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
- Unavailable: Estoril 0, Moreirense 0.
Alternative tip: Under 2.5 goals
Another angle: Under 2.5 goals (probability 51%, top price 1.90). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Estoril: no absences. Moreirense will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Estoril vs Moreirense: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.88 | 3.75 | 4.44 |
| Market average | 1.82 | 3.61 | 4.24 |
| Lowest odds | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.32 | 1.29 | 72.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.01 | 1.93 | 49.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 1.86 | 51.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.42 | 3.30 | 28.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.83 | 1.80 | 51.5% |
| BTTS – no | 1.95 | 1.92 | 48.5% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 25/10/26, 13:39. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.3%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Estoril 1–1 Moreirense, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Estoril 18th (2 points), Moreirense 9th (14 points).
- Form in the competition: Estoril 0W 2D 6L (4:12), Moreirense 2W 2D 4L (8:15).
- H2H: 19 matches: Estoril 6W 7D 6L, goals 26–25.
- Absences: Estoril 0, Moreirense 0.
Who will win Estoril vs Moreirense?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Estoril vs Moreirense: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Estoril vs Moreirense: injuries and missing players
Estoril
- No reported absences
Moreirense
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 11 | 6-2-3 | 13:8 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Famalicão | 11 | 3-4-4 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 | Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Estoril
Home and away
Estoril vs Moreirense: last matches of both teams
Estoril
Moreirense
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
EstorilLLLLLMoreirenseWWLDWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Estoril vs Moreirense?
Estoril -0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.86); Both teams to score (1.83).
Who will win Estoril vs Moreirense?
Our estimate gives Estoril a 52% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Moreirense 22%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 25 October 2026 at 15:30, venue Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril. Referee: C. Macedo.
Who will be missing?
Estoril: no absences. Moreirense: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 49% (odds 2.01) and under 2.5 goals at 51% (odds 1.90).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 51% (odds 1.83).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.7%), then 1–0 (11.7%) and 2–1 (9.6%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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