Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 4–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
AS Roma vs Cagliari, 27 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stadio Olimpico (Rome), with Ermanno Feliciani officiating. The odds point to AS Roma (73%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
AS Roma vs Cagliari: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. AS Roma lie 3rd, having collected 24 points after 10 matches (7W 3D 0L); Cagliari lie 12th, having collected 13 points (4W 1D 5L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, AS Roma average 2.4 goals for and 0.8 against, compared with 0.8 for and 1.1 against for Cagliari.
- Form in the competition. AS Roma: 5W 3D 0L, goals 19–6; Cagliari: 4W 1D 3L, goals 6–9.
- Head to head. In 29 previous meetings, AS Roma have taken 18 wins to Cagliari's 6 wins, plus 5 draws; the goal tally stands at 57–35.
What to expect
In our view AS Roma hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 2–0 (14.0%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.45), which we give a 67% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 42%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 54%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 29; AS Roma 18 wins, 5 draws, Cagliari 6 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.2 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: AS Roma 19–6, Cagliari 6–9.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
- Unavailable: AS Roma 5, Cagliari 3.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score: no
Another angle: Both teams to score: no (probability 58%, top price 1.65). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for AS Roma: M. Bah, M. Kone, L. Pellegrini, M. Svilar, P. Dybala. Cagliari will be without: M. Felici, R. Idrissi, H. Winks. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
AS Roma vs Cagliari: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.33 | 5.51 | 12.10 |
| Market average | 1.31 | 5.27 | 10.47 |
| Lowest odds | 1.29 | 4.94 | 7.53 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.23 | 76.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.82 | 1.75 | 54.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.31 | 2.10 | 45.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.04 | 2.86 | 32.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.25 | 2.21 | 42.1% |
| BTTS – no | 1.65 | 1.61 | 57.9% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 27/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.1%.
The key facts
- Likely result: AS Roma 2–0 Cagliari, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: AS Roma 3rd (24 points), Cagliari 12th (13 points).
- Form in the competition: AS Roma 5W 3D 0L (19:6), Cagliari 4W 1D 3L (6:9).
- H2H: 29 matches: AS Roma 18W 5D 6L, goals 57–35.
- Absences: AS Roma 5, Cagliari 3.
Who will win AS Roma vs Cagliari?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
AS Roma vs Cagliari: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
AS Roma vs Cagliari: injuries and missing players
AS Roma
- M. Bahknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Konemuscle injury · will miss the match
- L. Pellegrinithigh injury · will miss the match
- M. Svilarabsence · will miss the match
- P. Dybalacalf injury · doubtful
Cagliari
- M. Feliciknee injury · will miss the match
- R. Idrissiknee injury · will miss the match
- H. Winksback injury · will miss the match
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 | Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Venezia | 11 | 2-0-9 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | 1-2-8 | 12:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
AS Roma
Home and away
AS Roma vs Cagliari: last matches of both teams
AS Roma
Cagliari
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
AS RomaWWDWDCagliariLLLLDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Cagliari +1.75 (Asian handicap) (1.80); Under 3.5 goals (1.45).
Who will win AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Our estimate gives AS Roma a 73% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Cagliari 9%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 27 October 2026 at 19:45, venue Stadio Olimpico, Rome. Referee: Ermanno Feliciani.
Who will be missing?
AS Roma: M. Bah, M. Kone, L. Pellegrini, M. Svilar, P. Dybala. Cagliari: M. Felici, R. Idrissi, H. Winks. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 54% (odds 1.82) and under 2.5 goals at 46% (odds 2.31).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 42% (odds 2.25).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 2–0 (14.0%), then 1–0 (12.7%) and 3–0 (10.3%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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