Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Alverca welcome Arouca on 24 October 2026 · 18:00 at FC Alverca Sports Complex (Alverca do Ribatejo), and the referee is P. Ramalho. Alverca (46%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: Alverca win. Half lost (half the stake back): a draw. Loses: Alverca lose.
Alverca vs Arouca: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Table. Alverca lie 11th, having collected 11 points after 10 matches (3W 2D 5L); Arouca lie 5th, having collected 20 points (6W 2D 3L).
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Alverca average 1.6 goals for and 1.5 against, compared with 1.4 for and 0.9 against for Arouca.
- Form in the competition. Alverca: 3W 2D 3L, goals 13–12; Arouca: 4W 2D 2L, goals 11–7.
- Head to head. In 3 previous meetings, Alverca have taken 1 win to Arouca's 2 wins, plus 0 draws; the goal tally stands at 2–3.
What to expect
In our view Alverca hold the advantage. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (12.3%). This one looks finely poised.
Worth noting: the league table leans towards the Arouca, but the bookmakers make the home side slight favourites. Mixed signals like these make the game hard to predict, so it pays to bet with caution.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.75), which we give a 55% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 55%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 50%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 3; Alverca 1 win, 0 draws, Arouca 2 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 1.7 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Alverca 13–12, Arouca 11–7.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50%.
- Unavailable: Alverca 0, Arouca 0.
Alternative tip: Under 2.5 goals
Another angle: Under 2.5 goals (probability 50%, top price 1.93). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Alverca: no absences. Arouca will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Alverca vs Arouca: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.13 | 3.45 | 3.97 |
| Market average | 2.06 | 3.31 | 3.67 |
| Lowest odds | 2.00 | 3.18 | 3.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 1.27 | 73.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 1.91 | 49.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.93 | 1.88 | 50.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.40 | 3.22 | 29.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.75 | 1.70 | 54.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.05 | 45.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 24/10/26, 14:24. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 6.1%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Alverca 1–1 Arouca, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Alverca 11th (11 points), Arouca 5th (20 points).
- Form in the competition: Alverca 3W 2D 3L (13:12), Arouca 4W 2D 2L (11:7).
- H2H: 3 matches: Alverca 1W 0D 2L, goals 2–3.
- Absences: Alverca 0, Arouca 0.
Who will win Alverca vs Arouca?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Alverca vs Arouca: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Alverca vs Arouca: injuries and missing players
Alverca
- No reported absences
Arouca
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 | Arouca | 11 | 6-2-3 | 13:8 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Famalicão | 11 | 3-4-4 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 | Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Alverca
Home and away
Alverca vs Arouca: last matches of both teams
Alverca
Arouca
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
AlvercaLLWWWAroucaLWWWDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Alverca vs Arouca?
Alverca -0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.81); Both teams to score (1.75).
Who will win Alverca vs Arouca?
Our estimate gives Alverca a 46% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Arouca 26%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 24 October 2026 at 18:00, venue FC Alverca Sports Complex, Alverca do Ribatejo. Referee: P. Ramalho.
Who will be missing?
Alverca: no absences. Arouca: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 50% (odds 1.95) and under 2.5 goals at 50% (odds 1.93).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 55% (odds 1.75).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (12.3%), then 1–0 (11.1%) and 2–1 (9.2%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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