KNVB Cup
Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Excelsior Maassluis welcome Heerenveen on 28 October 2026 · 20:00 at Sportpark Dijkpolder (Maassluis), and the referee is A. Lindhout. Heerenveen (75%) are our favourites for this one. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
What to expect
In our view Heerenveen hold the advantage. We project a 1–3 scoreline, around 4 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 0–2 (10.1%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
With the result at a short price (1.24), the goals markets are also worth considering: Both teams to score (odds 1.73), which we give a 54% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 54%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 68%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 68%.
- Unavailable: Excelsior Maassluis 0, Heerenveen 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Another angle: Under 3.5 goals (probability 51%, top price 1.83). A projection of around 4 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Excelsior Maassluis: no absences. Heerenveen will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 10.00 | 6.25 | 1.24 |
| Market average | 9.18 | 5.89 | 1.22 |
| Lowest odds | 7.93 | 5.70 | 1.20 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.10 | 1.09 | 85.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 1.36 | 68.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 2.92 | 31.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.93 | 1.89 | 48.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.70 | 54.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.10 | 2.04 | 45.5% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 28/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 10.0%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Excelsior Maassluis 0–2 Heerenveen, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Absences: Excelsior Maassluis 0, Heerenveen 0.
Who will win Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Correct score tips
Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen: injuries and missing players
Excelsior Maassluis
- No reported absences
Heerenveen
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen: last matches of both teams
Excelsior Maassluis
Heerenveen
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
Excelsior MaassluisDWHeerenveenReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen?
Excelsior Maassluis +2 (Asian handicap) (1.75); Both teams to score (1.73).
Who will win Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen?
Our estimate gives Excelsior Maassluis a 10% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Heerenveen 75%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 28 October 2026 at 20:00, venue Sportpark Dijkpolder, Maassluis. Referee: A. Lindhout.
Who will be missing?
Excelsior Maassluis: no absences. Heerenveen: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 68% (odds 1.36) and under 2.5 goals at 32% (odds 3.10).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 54% (odds 1.73).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 0–2 (10.1%), then 1–2 (9.1%) and 0–3 (8.9%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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