Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Crewe vs Newport County (League Two, 14 November 2026, 15:00): Draw or Newport County (X2) at odds of 1.85. Second tip: Both teams to score at odds of 1.73. The bookmakers' odds give Crewe 46%, the draw 27% and Newport County 27%. The most likely score is 1–1.
Crewe vs Newport County preview and prediction
Crewe host Newport County at the Alexandra Stadium on 14 November 2026, with kick-off at 15:00, in Matchweek 15 of League Two. On the table alone, Crewe look the stronger side, sitting fourth with 22 points to Newport's 18 from 14 games each. The bookmakers agree, making Crewe 46% to win, the draw 27% and Newport 27%. We still think the value lies with the away side and the draw, and the reasons are below.
The key facts
- Likely result: Crewe 1–1 Newport County, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Crewe 4th (22 points), Newport County 14th (18 points).
- Form in the competition: Crewe 5W 7D 2L (17:17), Newport County 4W 6D 4L (20:17).
- H2H: 15 matches: Crewe 3W 5D 7L, goals 19–25.
- Absences: Crewe 0, Newport County 0.
Crewe's home record is their real strength
In this competition Crewe have won 5, drawn 7 and lost 2, with 17 goals scored and 17 conceded. Those numbers are league-only, so they tell us nothing about cup or other fixtures. The venue is where they look most solid. At home they have won 3, drawn 4 and lost none, scoring 12 and conceding 8, which is the kind of record that makes a side hard to beat in front of its own crowd.
Their last five matches in all competitions are less convincing. Crewe took 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from that run, scoring 6 and conceding 10. Both defeats came away from home, 2-0 at Exeter City and 5-1 at Chesterfield, and the Chesterfield scoreline is the one that stays with us.
Who will win Crewe vs Newport County?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Newport can score, but they rarely win away
Newport have scored 20 and conceded 17 this season, an average of 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded per match. Away from home, though, the picture is much grimmer: no wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats, with 6 goals scored and 11 conceded. Those are league figures only, so we would not write Newport off on the road, but it is a clear pattern.
Their last five in all competitions read better than their league table suggests. They have taken 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 5. The only defeat came 1-0 at Cheltenham, and they bounced back with a 4-1 home win over Chesterfield. That is the run that persuades us Newport are not as far behind Crewe as the table implies.
No earlier meeting and no injuries to weigh
We have no record of a previous meeting between these two clubs, so head-to-head gives us nothing to work with. Neither side has any reported absences either, which removes one variable. That leaves the judgement resting on the table, recent results and the prices, and we are comfortable with that for a match like this.
Crewe vs Newport County: injuries and missing players
Crewe
- No reported absences
Newport County
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
CreweDLLWWNewport CountyWLDDWOur Crewe vs Newport County betting tip: Draw or Newport County
Our main tip is Draw or Newport County (X2) at odds 1.85, with a chance of 54%. The case is simple. Newport have lost only 1 of their last 5 matches, and a side that is that hard to beat has a fair chance of holding Crewe or stealing a point. The market already prices the pairing at 54%, so the price is fair rather than generous. We would keep the stake modest.
The tip wins on 1-1, 0-1 and 1-2. It loses on 1-0, 2-1 and 2-0. The most likely exact score, 1-1, is covered, but both of the likeliest home wins, 1-0 and 2-1, cost us, so this bet depends on Crewe not finding a winning margin.
Crewe vs Newport County: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Correct score tips
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Salford City | 14 | 10-1-3 | 25:15 | 31 |
| 2 |  Barnet | 13 | 7-5-1 | 28:18 | 26 |
| 3 |  Walsall | 13 | 5-7-1 | 21:12 | 22 |
| 4 | Crewe | 14 | 5-7-2 | 17:17 | 22 |
| 5 |  Cheltenham | 14 | 6-3-5 | 23:25 | 21 |
| 6 |  Grimsby | 14 | 5-5-4 | 24:18 | 20 |
| 7 |  York | 14 | 5-5-4 | 24:21 | 20 |
| 8 |  Gillingham | 14 | 5-5-4 | 20:19 | 20 |
| 9 |  Accrington ST | 14 | 4-7-3 | 23:17 | 19 |
| 10 |  Chesterfield | 14 | 5-4-5 | 24:21 | 19 |
| 11 |  Tranmere | 14 | 4-7-3 | 19:17 | 19 |
| 12 |  Exeter City | 14 | 5-4-5 | 11:9 | 19 |
| 13 |  Swindon Town | 14 | 5-4-5 | 15:17 | 19 |
| 14 | Newport County | 14 | 4-6-4 | 20:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Shrewsbury | 14 | 5-3-6 | 17:22 | 18 |
| 16 |  Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4-5-5 | 18:18 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5-1-8 | 17:23 | 16 |
| 18 |  Oldham | 14 | 4-3-7 | 15:19 | 15 |
| 19 |  Port Vale | 12 | 4-3-5 | 10:14 | 15 |
| 20 |  Rochdale | 14 | 4-3-7 | 17:26 | 15 |
| 21 |  Northampton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 9:10 | 14 |
| 22 |  Rotherham | 14 | 2-6-6 | 18:25 | 12 |
| 23 |  Colchester | 13 | 2-6-5 | 12:19 | 12 |
| 24 |  Crawley Town | 12 | 2-3-7 | 13:21 | 9 |
Recent matches
Crewe
Home and away
Our second tip: Both teams to score
Our second tip is Both teams to score at odds 1.73, with a chance of 55%. Both teams have scored in 3 of Crewe's last 5 and in 3 of Newport's last 5. Crewe have failed to score in only 1 of their last 5, and Newport in only 1 of theirs. Add an expected total of about 3 goals and the market's 55%, and we think the bet is well supported.
The second tip wins on 1-1, 2-1 and 1-2. It loses on 1-0, 2-0 and 0-1. A 1-0 either way, or a home 2-0, leaves it on the losing side, so the stake should reflect that.
Crewe vs Newport County: last matches of both teams
Crewe
Newport County
Head to head
All matchesOther bets worth a second look
If our two tips do not suit your staking, these are the alternatives from the list that we would consider:
- Newport County +1.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.27, with a chance of 74%. The bet wins unless Newport County lose by 2 or more, which fits our view that they will not be heavily beaten.
- Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.37, with a chance of 69%. It sits comfortably beside an expected total of about 3.
- Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a chance of 74%. A cautious way to back goals without taking on the full risk of the second tip.
The draw and Newport are where we find the value, and the 1-1 scoreline is the one we would most like to see. A 1-0 either way, or a 2-1 home win, would leave us with regret, and we accept that at these prices.
Crewe vs Newport County: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Market average | 2.01 | 3.41 | 3.44 |
| Lowest odds | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.34 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 1.24 | 74.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 1.83 | 51.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 1.93 | 48.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.95 | 31.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.69 | 54.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.08 | 2.05 | 45.3% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 3/11/26, 16:27. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 8.3%.
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Crewe vs Newport County?
Draw or Newport County (X2) (1.85); Both teams to score (1.73).
Who will win Crewe vs Newport County?
Our estimate gives Crewe a 46% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Newport County 27%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 14 November 2026 at 15:00, venue Alexandra Stadium, Crewe.
Who will be missing?
Crewe: no absences. Newport County: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 51% (odds 1.85) and under 2.5 goals at 49% (odds 1.95).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 55% (odds 1.73).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (12.0%), then 1–0 (10.4%) and 2–1 (9.3%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
More predictions
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