EFL Cup
Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sunderland vs Brentford, 28 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stadium of Light (Sunderland), with G. Ward officiating. The odds point to Brentford (53%) as favourites. Below: our tip, outcome probabilities, team news and analysis.
Wins: Sunderland win, a draw. Stake back: Sunderland lose by 1. Loses: Sunderland lose by 2 or more.
Sunderland vs Brentford: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Sunderland average 1.0 goals for and 0.0 against, compared with 4.0 for and 1.0 against for Brentford.
- Form in the competition. Sunderland: 1W 0D 0L, goals 1–0; Brentford: 2W 0D 0L, goals 8–2.
- Head to head. In 5 previous meetings, Sunderland have taken 1 win to Brentford's 2 wins, plus 2 draws; the goal tally stands at 6–10.
What to expect
In our view Brentford hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (11.2%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.67), which we give a 56% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 56%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 54%.
The prediction at a glance
- Meetings: 5; Sunderland 1 win, 2 draws, Brentford 2 wins.
- Head to head meetings have produced 3.2 goals a game on average.
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Sunderland 1–0, Brentford 8–2.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
- Unavailable: Sunderland 0, Brentford 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Another angle: Over 2.5 goals (probability 54%, top price 1.77). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Sunderland: no absences. Brentford will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Sunderland vs Brentford: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 4.55 | 3.90 | 1.85 |
| Market average | 4.30 | 3.81 | 1.78 |
| Lowest odds | 4.00 | 3.50 | 1.73 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.22 | 76.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.77 | 1.74 | 54.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.12 | 2.08 | 45.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.89 | 2.75 | 33.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.66 | 55.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.12 | 2.10 | 44.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 28/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.8%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Sunderland 1–1 Brentford, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Form in the competition: Sunderland 1W 0D 0L (1:0), Brentford 2W 0D 0L (8:2).
- H2H: 5 matches: Sunderland 1W 2D 2L, goals 6–10.
- Absences: Sunderland 0, Brentford 0.
Who will win Sunderland vs Brentford?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Sunderland vs Brentford: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Sunderland vs Brentford: injuries and missing players
Sunderland
- No reported absences
Brentford
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Sunderland vs Brentford: last matches of both teams
Sunderland
Brentford
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
SunderlandWBrentfordWWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Sunderland vs Brentford?
Sunderland +1 (Asian handicap) (1.62); Both teams to score (1.67).
Who will win Sunderland vs Brentford?
Our estimate gives Sunderland a 22% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Brentford 53%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 28 October 2026 at 19:45, venue Stadium of Light, Sunderland. Referee: G. Ward.
Who will be missing?
Sunderland: no absences. Brentford: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 54% (odds 1.77) and under 2.5 goals at 46% (odds 2.12).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 56% (odds 1.67).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (11.2%), then 0–1 (10.6%) and 1–2 (9.8%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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