Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Port Vale vs Scunthorpe (FA Cup, 7 November 2026, 15:00): Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.72. Second tip: Port Vale to win at odds of 1.60. The bookmakers' odds give Port Vale 59%, the draw 23% and Scunthorpe 18%. The most likely score is 1–1.
Port Vale vs Scunthorpe preview and prediction
Vale Park hosts the FA Cup 1/128-final between Port Vale and Scunthorpe on 7 November 2026, with the whistle at 15:00. Bookmakers see the home side as the clear favourites at 59%, with a draw at 23% and Scunthorpe at 18%. Our model projects 2 goals for Port Vale and 1 for Scunthorpe, which points toward roughly three goals altogether, and that total is the figure we return to again and again.
The key facts
- Likely result: Port Vale 1–1 Scunthorpe, roughly 3 goals in total.
- H2H: 13 matches: Port Vale 4W 4D 5L, goals 16–17.
- Absences: Port Vale 0, Scunthorpe 0.
Port Vale at home and what their form shows
Over their previous five outings across every competition, Port Vale collected three home victories over Grimsby (1-0), Chesterfield (1-0) and Rochdale (4-2), shared a 1-1 draw at Gillingham and fell 2-0 at York. In total that run reads 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 7 goals scored and 5 conceded.
The two 1-0 victories at Vale Park were close affairs rather than heavy wins. The 4-2 success against Rochdale tells a different story, though. This team finds the net regularly and also concedes freely, so pricing them as if every home fixture will end without a goal against would be a mistake.
Who will win Port Vale vs Scunthorpe?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Scunthorpe on the road and what we cannot see
Here we have to be straight with you. Our data carries no recent results for Scunthorpe, so we cannot judge their form or their away record in this run, and we will not invent a picture to fill the gap. What we do have is the market's view: Scunthorpe win at 18% with best odds of 5.46, and their expected goals sit at 1.
That low expectation fits a side the bookmakers do not see as a threat to win this tie. Whether it is the right read depends on what they have done lately, and that is the one thing our figures cannot tell us.
Head-to-head record and team news
Recent history between these sides is tighter than the market implies. Across their last 13 encounters, Port Vale have collected 4 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats, and the goals stand at 16:17. Scunthorpe took a 2-0 home victory in January 2021, whereas Port Vale's latest success in that stretch was a 1-0 home win in January 2022. A 2-2 draw in February 2020 also features in the record.
Neither club has flagged any injuries or suspensions, which means there is no fresh team news to change our read. The odds currently on offer still reflect the market, and we don't expect a last-minute development to reshape how this match is likely to unfold.
Head to head
All matchesTeam comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
Port Vale
ScunthorpeWOur second tip: Port Vale to win
Port Vale to win is our second selection, priced at 1.60 (59% chance). The club has taken 3 of its last 5 matches and dropped just 1 of those 5, which justifies siding with the hosts at a figure the market also rates at 59%. Backing the bookmakers' own assessment here seems sensible.
This tip cashes on 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1 and fails only on 1-1. Our top-rated scoreline here, 1-0, lands in its favour, a real plus for the pick. Among the results we are examining, only a stalemate at 1-1 undoes it.
Port Vale vs Scunthorpe: injuries and missing players
Port Vale
- No reported absences
Scunthorpe
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Our Port Vale vs Scunthorpe betting tip: Over 2.5 goals
Our top pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds 1.78 (chance 55%). The reasoning hinges on an expected total of roughly 3 goals, with the market giving the over 55% at best odds of 1.78. We see this as a fixture expected to yield around three goals.
The main drawback shows up in the exact scores. This pick cashes on 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1, but it fails on 1-0, 2-0 and 1-1. Those three failing outcomes are also the most probable exact scores listed here, so the bet depends on the match being decided by a second goal and not by a tight home win. We see that as a fair assumption, though it carries genuine risk.
Port Vale vs Scunthorpe: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Port Vale vs Scunthorpe: last matches of both teams
Port Vale
Scunthorpe
Other bets worth a look
- Port Vale +0.25 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.20 (chance 79%). The stake is split equally between Port Vale +0 and Port Vale +0.5. On the +0 leg, a Vale victory pays out, a draw refunds the stake, and a loss forfeits it; on the +0.5 leg, the wager succeeds unless Vale are beaten by a margin of one goal or more. Returns are modest, yet this approach offers the most secure route to backing the hosts.
- Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.26 (chance 77%). A short price, but it fits well with a projected total near 3 goals, and it holds regardless of which side wins.
- Scunthorpe +1.5 (Asian handicap) priced at 1.52 (chance 63%). Under this line, a loss by a single goal still pays out, so only a defeat by two or more goals costs the stake. Taking the head-to-head record into account, we consider it sensible to expect Scunthorpe to hold the deficit to one goal at most.
- Backing Port Vale at the +0 Asian handicap, priced at 1.24 (77% chance). Here a Port Vale victory pays out, a draw gives your stake back, and a loss takes it. Compared with the straight win tip, this version offers a bit more cushion should the match end level.
Our top call for the most probable result is Port Vale 1-0 Scunthorpe, which carries the highest chance of any exact score listed here at 11.0%. That margin sits outside our headline selection but inside the secondary one, so the decision rests on how many goals you think will be scored. Our lean is Port Vale to win, backed over the goals line.
Port Vale vs Scunthorpe: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 1.60 | 4.35 | 5.60 |
| Market average | 1.56 | 4.07 | 5.17 |
| Lowest odds | 1.50 | 3.58 | 4.55 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.23 | 1.20 | 77.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.72 | 1.68 | 56.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 2.15 | 43.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.75 | 2.66 | 34.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.75 | 1.73 | 53.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.10 | 2.01 | 46.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 6/11/26, 23:50. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 8.2%.
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Port Vale vs Scunthorpe?
Over 2.5 goals (1.72); Port Vale to win (1.60).
Who will win Port Vale vs Scunthorpe?
Our estimate gives Port Vale a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Scunthorpe 18%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 7 November 2026 at 15:00, venue Vale Park, Stoke-On-Trent.
Who will be missing?
Port Vale: no absences. Scunthorpe: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 56% (odds 1.72) and under 2.5 goals at 44% (odds 2.20).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 54% (odds 1.75).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (10.2%), then 1–0 (10.2%) and 2–1 (10.0%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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