Newport County vs Walsall: prediction, odds and betting tip – 7 November 2026, FA Cup

Newport County vs Walsall preview and prediction

Can Newport County's recent home form carry them past Walsall in the FA Cup, 1/128-finals? We think it can, at least far enough to avoid defeat. The tie is at Rodney Parade on 7 November 2026, kick-off 15:00, and both sides arrive with a mixed bag of results.

Is Newport's form good enough to trust?

Across their last five outings in all competitions, Newport County have claimed two victories, shared two draws and suffered a single loss, finding the net eight times while letting in five. The standout performance was a 4-1 triumph over Chesterfield, whereas the 1-0 reverse at Cheltenham stands out as their only genuine setback. A 1-1 stalemate with York at home does not grab the headlines.

On the road, the form is harder to trust. Their 2-2 draw at Rotherham and the loss at Cheltenham both point to difficulty away from their own ground. These figures include every competition.

How do Walsall's results compare?

Walsall have collected two victories, a pair of draws and a single loss across their latest five outings, netting ten times while letting in seven. Their strongest displays came in a 3-0 triumph against Oldham and a 3-1 success on the road at Colchester. Yet their 2-4 reverse at home to Salford City highlights how readily their backline can be breached.

Two of their recent draws were on the road, away at Fleetwood Town and at Swindon Town, and neither is the kind of outcome that inspires much belief. Walsall do find the net regularly, but they don't always stop the opposition from scoring at the other end.

What do the last fifteen meetings tell us?

Across the last fifteen encounters, the rivalry is almost perfectly balanced: Newport County and Walsall have each claimed four victories, with seven matches finishing level. Both sides have scored 19 times. Walsall took the latest clash 2-1 on 21/3/26, yet Newport beat them 3-0 at Walsall back in February 2024. The 3-3 draw from October 2023 is a reminder of how wildly these fixtures can swing.

Past meetings deserve little attention here. This fixture has produced plenty of draws, but a cup game depends mainly on the current form of both teams rather than on a string of earlier encounters.

Are there any absences to worry about?

Neither squad has any reported injuries or suspensions, which suggests both coaches will field close to their strongest XI. The focus therefore shifts to form over recent matches and to how each side builds chances and limits them.

What are the bookmakers expecting here?

Bettors favour Newport County by a slim margin, rating them at 37% with the top price at 2.60. Walsall follow at 35% (best price 2.70), while the draw comes in at 28% with the best available price at 3.45. Across the three outcomes, the built-in edge for the house stands at 8.5%.

Expected goals sit near one per side, adding up to roughly two overall. Both teams scoring comes in at 55% with the best available price of 1.75, whereas over 2.5 goals reaches 50%. The top exact scorelines are 1-1 at 12.4%, 1-0 at 9.5% and 0-1 at 9.2%, which makes 1-1 the single most probable exact score.

Which bet do we like at Rodney Parade?

Our main pick is Newport County or draw (1X) at odds 1.50 (chance 65%). Across their last five games, Newport have dropped just one result, and bookmakers price this double chance at 65% with the best available odds of 1.50. That covers our reasoning, and we feel it is sufficient. Having lost only once in that stretch, the home side should be hard to beat in a cup contest, while Walsall at 2.70 do not appeal to us given how inconsistent they have been on the road.

The tip cashes on 1-1, 1-0, 2-1 and 0-0, and falls short on 0-1 and 1-2. Walsall taking the points is the only scenario behind both losing outcomes, and it is the result this selection is designed to steer clear of.

Our second tip: Both teams to score

The both teams to score market is priced at 1.75, with a 55% chance according to our model. Each side has recently been reliable in front of goal. Newport have found the back of the net in four of their last five games, while Walsall have done so in all five of theirs. Newport went without a goal in just one of those five, and Walsall were never blanked in that span. These numbers drive our view, which is why we favour this over an Under.

This wager lands on 1-1, 2-1 and 1-2, and fails on 1-0, 0-1 and 0-0. It works well alongside the primary selection, because 1-1, the most probable outcome, carries both bets through.

Which other bets would we add?

• Newport County +0.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.50. Newport only lose this if they are beaten by one or more goals, so a draw or a Newport win still pays out. It sits alongside our top selection as a near relative, just priced differently.
• Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33. The market gives it 71%, which suits a game where the expected figures sit near one goal per side.
• Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.32. Low-priced, but it gives us the goals angle of our second tip, and the market puts the chance at 73%.

So where does the stake go?

Newport should either take the three points or settle for a draw, and we see both sides getting on the scoresheet. Because the edge is slim, we would keep the stakes small. Our first pick is the 1X at 1.50, followed by both teams to score at 1.75. For a different option, the Newport +0.5 handicap also wins on a draw, at the same price of 1.50.