KNVB Cup
Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
On 28 October 2026 · 19:00 at De Geusselt (Maastricht), MVV take on Excelsior, with A. Bos in charge. We make Excelsior (67%) the favourites. Our tip, the probabilities of each outcome, absences and our analysis follow below.
MVV vs Excelsior: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
What to expect
In our view Excelsior hold the advantage. We project a 1–2 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–2 (9.8%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.50), which we give a 64% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 56%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 64%.
The prediction at a glance
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
- Unavailable: MVV 0, Excelsior 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Another angle: Under 3.5 goals (probability 57%, top price 1.73). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for MVV: no absences. Excelsior will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
MVV vs Excelsior: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 7.00 | 4.87 | 1.42 |
| Market average | 6.77 | 4.72 | 1.40 |
| Lowest odds | 6.41 | 4.50 | 1.36 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.12 | 1.11 | 83.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.70 | 2.55 | 36.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.28 | 2.16 | 43.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.65 | 56.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.13 | 43.7% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 28/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 7.6%.
The key facts
- Likely result: MVV 1–2 Excelsior, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Absences: MVV 0, Excelsior 0.
Who will win MVV vs Excelsior?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
MVV vs Excelsior: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Correct score tips
MVV vs Excelsior: injuries and missing players
MVV
- No reported absences
Excelsior
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
MVV vs Excelsior: last matches of both teams
MVV
Excelsior
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for MVV vs Excelsior?
Under 3.5 goals (1.73); Excelsior to win (1.42).
Who will win MVV vs Excelsior?
Our estimate gives MVV a 14% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Excelsior 67%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 28 October 2026 at 19:00, venue De Geusselt, Maastricht. Referee: A. Bos.
Who will be missing?
MVV: no absences. Excelsior: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 64% (odds 1.50) and under 2.5 goals at 36% (odds 2.70).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 56% (odds 1.67).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–2 (9.8%), then 0–2 (9.8%) and 1–1 (8.5%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
18+ · Every bet carries a risk. Our predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning. Gamble responsibly.