EFL Cup
Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Liverpool welcome Chelsea on 28 October 2026 · 20:00 at Anfield (Liverpool), and the referee is D. England. We cannot separate the two sides. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Liverpool vs Chelsea: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Liverpool average 3.0 goals for and 1.0 against, compared with 4.0 for and 1.5 against for Chelsea.
- Form in the competition. Liverpool: 1W 0D 0L, goals 3–1; Chelsea: 2W 0D 0L, goals 8–3.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (10.6%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.56), which we give a 62% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 65%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 62%.
The prediction at a glance
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Liverpool 3–1, Chelsea 8–3.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
- Unavailable: Liverpool 0, Chelsea 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Another angle: Under 3.5 goals (probability 58%, top price 1.65). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Liverpool: no absences. Chelsea will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Liverpool vs Chelsea: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.32 | 3.80 | 3.09 |
| Market average | 2.28 | 3.67 | 2.97 |
| Lowest odds | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.14 | 81.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.56 | 1.52 | 61.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.53 | 2.43 | 38.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.35 | 2.26 | 41.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.44 | 1.43 | 64.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.70 | 2.63 | 35.2% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 28/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.0%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Form in the competition: Liverpool 1W 0D 0L (3:1), Chelsea 2W 0D 0L (8:3).
- Absences: Liverpool 0, Chelsea 0.
Who will win Liverpool vs Chelsea?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Liverpool vs Chelsea: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Liverpool vs Chelsea: injuries and missing players
Liverpool
- No reported absences
Chelsea
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Liverpool vs Chelsea: last matches of both teams
Liverpool
Chelsea
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
LiverpoolWChelseaWWReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Liverpool vs Chelsea?
Draw or Chelsea (X2) (1.70); Over 2.5 goals (1.56).
Who will win Liverpool vs Chelsea?
Our estimate gives Liverpool a 42% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Chelsea 32%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 28 October 2026 at 20:00, venue Anfield, Liverpool. Referee: D. England.
Who will be missing?
Liverpool: no absences. Chelsea: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 62% (odds 1.56) and under 2.5 goals at 38% (odds 2.53).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 65% (odds 1.44).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (10.6%), then 2–1 (9.0%) and 1–2 (7.7%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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