EFL Cup
Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Bournemouth welcome Aston Villa on 28 October 2026 · 19:45 at Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth), and the referee is T. Harrington. We cannot separate the two sides. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, team news and a full analysis.
Wins: Bournemouth win. Stake back: a draw. Loses: Bournemouth lose.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: our analysis
Why we chose this tip
- Attack and defence. Per game in this competition, Bournemouth average 4.0 goals for and 0.0 against, compared with 3.0 for and 1.0 against for Aston Villa.
- Form in the competition. Bournemouth: 1W 0D 0L, goals 4–0; Aston Villa: 1W 0D 0L, goals 3–1.
What to expect
In our view there is little between the sides. We project a 2–1 scoreline, around 3 goals altogether, and the single likeliest outcome is 1–1 (10.8%). This one should be open, with chances at both ends.
On goals we go for Both teams to score (odds 1.50), which we give a 63% chance. In our view both teams score with a probability of 63%, and over 2.5 goals with a probability of 60%.
The prediction at a glance
- Scored and conceded in this competition: Bournemouth 4–0, Aston Villa 3–1.
- Our projection is around 3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
- Unavailable: Bournemouth 0, Aston Villa 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Another angle: Under 3.5 goals (probability 60%, top price 1.59). A projection of around 3 goals supports it.
Absences
Unavailable for Bournemouth: no absences. Aston Villa will be without: no absences. Team news can change, so take another look before the game.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: bookmaker odds side by side
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top price available | 2.37 | 3.70 | 2.93 |
| Market average | 2.33 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
| Lowest odds | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.15 | 81.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.59 | 1.57 | 60.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.45 | 2.37 | 39.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.45 | 2.34 | 39.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.4% |
| BTTS – no | 2.56 | 2.53 | 36.6% |
Prices gathered from several bookmakers and refreshed 28/10/26, 18:00. Use them as a guide: what a particular operator offers can be different. Margin on average: 5.5%.
The key facts
- Likely result: Bournemouth 1–1 Aston Villa, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Form in the competition: Bournemouth 1W 0D 0L (4:0), Aston Villa 1W 0D 0L (3:1).
- Absences: Bournemouth 0, Aston Villa 0.
Who will win Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
We work out this estimate from the odds of several bookmakers once their margin has been removed. No outcome is ever certain.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. A price is value when the best odds on offer beat the fair odds. Likely: 60% or more; possible: 50–60%; outsider: below 50%.
Corners and cards betting
Correct score tips
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: injuries and missing players
Bournemouth
- No reported absences
Aston Villa
- No reported absences
Team news can still change before the game.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: last matches of both teams
Bournemouth
Aston Villa
Team comparison
All figures are drawn from the games played so far this season, which is still a limited sample.
Form in the competition
BournemouthWAston VillaWReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which tip do we give for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Bournemouth +0 (Asian handicap) (1.75); Both teams to score (1.50).
Who will win Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Our estimate gives Bournemouth a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Aston Villa 33%.
What is the date, time and venue of the game?
Kick-off is on 28 October 2026 at 19:45, venue Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. Referee: T. Harrington.
Who will be missing?
Bournemouth: no absences. Aston Villa: no absences. Team news can still change before kick-off.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this game?
We put over 2.5 goals at 60% (odds 1.59) and under 2.5 goals at 40% (odds 2.45).
Will both teams score?
We put the chance of both teams finding the net at 63% (odds 1.50).
What correct score do we see as likeliest?
Top of our list is 1–1 (10.8%), then 2–1 (8.9%) and 1–2 (7.8%).
How do you put your predictions together?
Our starting point is the odds of several bookmakers: we take out the margin, average what is left and turn it into probabilities, then a Poisson model gives the expected goals and the likeliest scorelines. Form, head to head and absences are shown on the page as background. The predictions are meant as information and offer no guarantee of winning.
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